Destination EU-NATO: Macedonia votes on name change

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Macedonians vote on Sunday on whether to change their country's name, months after Skopje reached a historic deal with Greece that could set it finally on the path to joining the European Union and NATO.

What it's about

Macedonia took its name when it declared independence from the former Yugoslavia in 1991.

Neighboring Greece however objected to it. For Greeks, Macedonia is the name of an ancient kingdom that is a key part of their cultural heritage. It is also the name of a northern Greek province, prompting fears south of the border that the new republic might lay territorial claims to it.

Relations between the two neighbors remained fraught for almost three decades and Athens blocked attempts by Skopje to join the EU and NATO as a result.

(From left) EU Foreign Affairs Chief Federica Mogherini, EU Enlargement Commissioner Johannes Hahn, Macedonian Prime Minister Zoran Zaev and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras smile during the signing ceremony of a preliminary accord on renaming Macedonia at Prespes Lake, June 17, 2018. /VCG Photo

In June however, after months of talks, the two sides struck a historic deal that calls for Macedonia to be renamed "Republic of North Macedonia" in exchange for Greece lifting its veto on EU and NATO membership.

The agreement was ratified by the parliament in Skopje but since it will require constitutional changes, Prime Minister Zoran Zaev decided to put it to a popular vote.

Arguments for...

Supporters of a name change have held up the prospect of EU and NATO membership, and argue that voting "yes" will help boost the country's struggling economy, hit by unemployment and mass emigration.

Zaev, who struck the deal in June with his Greek counterpart Alexis Tsipras, told a rally on Wednesday that it was a "fair and just compromise" that "opens the doors of NATO and the European Union."

People wave Macedonian and European flags at a "yes" rally in Skopje, September 16, 2018. /VCG Photo

"NATO membership would bring stability and security, which is very important for investment," he also told Reuters.

The "yes" vote is backed by European and NATO partners, who have paraded through Skopje in recent weeks and are eager to see further integration in a region still recently torn apart by conflict.

... and against

Critics on the other hand argue that changing Macedonia's name would be an attack on its sovereignty and amount to giving in to Greece.

Macedonian President Gjorge Ivanov – a vocal opponent of the deal – described it this week as "violence against our historical memory."

"The Republic of Macedonia is now asked to commit a legal and historical suicide," he told the UN General Assembly in New York, adding that the referendum "could lead us to become a subordinate state, dependent on another country."

Protesters clash with police during a demonstration against the agreement reached by Greece and Macedonia to resolve the name dispute in Thessaloniki, Greece, September 8, 2018. /VCG Photo

After the agreement was signed in June, protests erupted both in Macedonia and Greece.

South of the border, many are unhappy that their neighbors are being allowed to keep the name "Macedonia" in any form. In early September, some 15,000 protesters in Thessaloniki, in northern Greece, clashed with riot police over the issue.

Boycotts, vetoes and annulments

The strong emotions attached to the issue have resulted in some extreme actions.

Ivanov vetoed the Zaev-Tsipras deal in June but was forced to approve it when it went through parliament a second time.

Two bids to cancel Sunday's referendum were then quashed earlier this month by Macedonia's constitutional court.

Macedonian President Gjorge Ivanov addresses the United Nations General Assembly in New York, September 27, 2018. /VCG Photo

Now, a call to boycott the vote threatens to skew the result.

The campaign has taken place mostly online, on social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter, but the country's president has also urged voters to stay at home.

Speaking at the UN General Assembly, Ivanov said that "voting in a referendum is a right, not an obligation" and added he would not vote on Sunday.

"I know that you, my fellow citizens, will make a similarly wise decision," he added, prompting a strong rebuke from the European Union.

The referendum

Some 1.8 million Macedonians are registered to vote but turnout is crucial and at least 50 percent of voters need to cast their ballot for the result to be valid, even if it is non-binding.

A woman rides a bicycle past a banner reading "Boycott" set up by opponents of the referendum in Skopje, September 29, 2018. /VCG Photo

A recent poll by Macedonia's Telma TV found 57 percent of people intended to vote on Sunday, and of those, 70 percent planned to back the name change.

Even if it is approved, it will then need to be ratified by parliament and for that it will need the support of the right-wing opposition VMRO-DPMNE party, which is strongly opposed to the deal.

In case of a strong referendum result however, the party might not want to risk going against popular opinion, observers say.

Greece's parliament will also need to give its approval, and that too is less than assured.

If all goes well, Macedonia will begin formal procedures to join NATO and the EU next year. But it could take a few more years for these to be formally completed.

(Top picture: A man passes posters reading "yes" for the referendum in Macedonia on changing the country's name in Skopje, September 28, 2018. /VCG Photo)

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