In the last SDF battle against ISIL, has Turkey lost in Syria?

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Editor's note: Wang Jin is a research fellow at Charhar Institute. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) led by the Syrian Democratic Union Party (PYD) are pressing ahead in what could be the final military offensive against ISIL extremists in northeastern Syria.

Given that both SDF and PYD are supported and assisted by the U.S., their offensive could be perceived as a new variable in northern Syria and might influence the dynamics of rival powers in the country.

The military offensive targets up to 600 ISIL militants in their last pocket in Deir Az-Zor. More than 20,000 local civilians have been evacuated and the campaign might be the final battle against ISIL militants in Syria.

Supported by U.S. airstrikes, SDF's military attack might quickly claim victory in eastern Syria.

The offensive puts U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement to withdraw his troops from Syria last December back under the spotlight.

Trump's excuse for his pullout decision was that ISIL had been defeated.

However, after his announcement, both U.S. security adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo expressed Washington's hesitation over the withdrawal, with Trump later making a U-turn and saying that there is no deadline in sight for the withdrawal process.

Washington's hesitation, however, worried Ankara, which sees the SDF and PYD militants as "terrorists" no different from ISIL fighters.

A Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) armored vehicle drives through destroyed streets near the frontline in Baghouz, Deir Az-Zor province, Syria, February 10, 2019. /VCG Photo

Ankara believes that the PYD is the Syrian branch of another "terrorist group," the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in southern Turkey. The Turkish authorities are closely monitoring the military expansion and development of the SDF in northern Syria.

Ankara launched two military offensives in Syria in 2016 and 2018 to expand its influence in the north of the war-torn country and eliminate the presence of Kurdish fighters.

Turkey has been preparing to launch a new offensive in northern Syria. It aims to establish a buffer zone across the border area between Syria and Turkey to settle both 3.5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey and thousands of Ankara-backed Syrian rebels.

However, the challenges to Turkey's plan in northern Syria are two-fold.

On the one hand, Ankara-backed Syrian rebels still occupy a large area in northern Syria. The Syrian government describes these rebels as "terrorists" and U.S. and Turkish troops as "illegal invaders."

Idlib Province is the major home base for Ankara-backed Syrian rebels, which also offers refuge for Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, Al-Qaeda's branch in Syria.

Although a buffer zone was established by Turkey, Russia, and Iran in Idlib to separate the Syrian government forces and rebels, skirmishes and confrontations between the two sides, especially the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham still erupt.

Women who have fled the fighting in Bagouz look out from the back of a truck in Bagouz, Syria, February 11, 2019. /VCG Photo

The Syrian government has been vowing to retake Idlib Province to reunify all the territories under its control.

On the other hand, Ankara's threat to the SDF and PYD could be deterred.

The PYD has been perceived by the U.S. and Russia as an important partner in defeating ISIL since 2013, and Turkish forces and Ankara-backed Syrian rebels dare not cross the Euphrates River to attack the SDF in northeastern Syria thanks to the U.S. military presence there.

Although Trump promised to withdraw his troops from Syria, the deadline has not been clear. And with the SDF launching a new offensive in northern Syria against ISIL, Trump's excuse will no longer hold water.

The offensive against ISIL could last for weeks, while eliminating ISIL remnants could last for months or even longer, and it may be necessary for the U.S. to extend its military presence in Syria. Turkey might not stand a chance launching a new offensive against the SDF and PYD.

Turkey's strategy in Syria to support local rebels and eliminate the PYD presence has been challenged by both the Syrian government's attempt to retake all the territories and Washington's coordination with the PYD in defeating ISIL.

With the new offensive by the PYD-led SDF against ISIL in northern Syria, Trump's once-promised withdrawal might be further delayed, and Turkey's plan in Syria might be difficult to see the light of day.

(Cover photo: Smoke from an US-led coalition airstrike is seen over buildings near the front line in Bagouz, Syria, February 10, 2019. /VCG Photo)

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