2019 is another “Election Year” in Africa as it will witness more than 10 general elections in the continent. Being the biggest economy and most populated country in Africa, Nigeria's upcoming election on February 23 has attracted worldwide attention. Currently, President Muhammadu Buhari and former vice president Atiku Abubakar are the frontrunners in the 2019 race for the presidency and the two leading candidates are representing the two main rival parties, namely the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) party and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

However, instead of trying to guess who will win, it's better to focus on what the main concerns of the 84 million Nigerian voters are and the challenges ahead that the winner will have to deal with.

While creating jobs, fighting corruption, improving health and education system, building and upgrading the poor infrastructure, addressing poverty and food insecurity are all major concerns, the utmost and priority concerns are the economic performance and the security situation. 

In terms of the economy, even though Nigeria is the biggest economy in Africa and the sixth largest oil producer in the world, 87 million Nigerians now live in extreme poverty, which is the highest number of impoverished people in the world, according to a recent report by the Brookings Institution. In recent years, due to the down price of crude oil in the world market, Nigeria economy has been in recession. 

According to the number given by the Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics, 55.4 percent of young people (15-34) were either underemployed or unemployed (doing nothing) in the third quarter of 2018 compared to 52.6 percent in the same period of the previous year. The higher youth unemployment rate is not only a challenge for the next Nigerian president, but also a time bomb for the social and political stability of the nation as a whole.

How can Nigeria improve employment and diversify Nigeria's oil-dependent economy? Certainly, both frontrunners as well as their Parties have no clear answers to this million dollar question. However, holding the “Reform” slogan high is becoming the campaign strategy for Atiku. He once wrote on Twitter: “Young Nigerians aren't just leaving Nigeria because of bad pay and working conditions - they are leaving because there is no hope." So Nigeria needs “reform” and “change”, and needs to bring the “hope” to the youth.

Though Atiku himself is a successful entrepreneur who has been investing in various sectors in the country, he also has no clear economic blueprint on hand. With more than 190 million people, most of whom are under the age of 35, any future Nigerian President has to bear the job issue in his/her mind.

The second biggest concern is the security situation. Four years ago, Buhari won the presidency by promising to fight against corruption and Islamic extremists Boko Haram. And the U.S. also threw their support to him rather than the former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan for the same anti-terror reason, accusing the latter not doing a good job for fighting with Boko Haram.

As a matter of fact, like the anti-corruption campaign, even though the anti-corruption organ such as the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission has been playing an important role, it is still hard to contain the wide spreading corruption as the corruption has already been deeply rooted in the society body like cancer. 

Similarly, in terms of security, though some security progress has been made in the Northeast in the past two years, there are still a series of instability factors such as kidnapping young school girls and looting villagers. The more serious and dangerous thing is that Boko Haram has officially committed loyalty to the ISIL and that will push Nigeria on the frontline in the war against international terrorism.

Apart from Boko Haram, another current priority security challenge is the traditional tensions between farmers and herdsmen (mainly from the Fulani ethnic group) in the central regions which were caused by Sahel climate change from the source. In last year, this kind of tensions and conflicts has claimed nearly 2000 lives, according to Amnesty International. 

Most Nigerians have been calling the government to put “Fulani herdsmen” on the terrorism list. And also according to the Global Terrorism Index ranking, Nigerian Fulani herdsmen are now ranking as the fourth after Boko Haram, the ISIL in Syria and Iraq and al-Shabab in Somalia.

In short, no matter who wins the next Nigerian president, he or she has to deal with the biggest two challenges. The jobless youth can easily be lured into the camp of extremists, and traditional farmers and herdsmen tensions also can easily turn into further political or ethnic tensions.

(Cover photo:  A cyclist drives pasts a campaign poster for President Muhammadu Buhari in a street after the postponement of the presidential election in Kano, Nigeria February 17, 2019. /VCG Photo)