Analysis: Fears of Israel's likely annexation of West Bank rise

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Israel on Monday appeared to calm down fears of an imminent annexation of the West Bank with the country's UN envoy suggesting Tel Aviv would prefer waiting for U.S. President Donald Trump's "deal of the century" to be revealed before taking any further action on the matter.

The reassurance, however, hasn't reduced Palestinian and international fears, which were significantly raised after two recent events – the U.S. recognition of Israeli sovereignty over Golan Heights (which are widely viewed as Syrian territory under Israeli military occupation); and the subsequent re-election last month of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who had pledged to extend Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank settlements.

Israel's permanent representative to the United Nations Danny Danon on Monday told reporters at UN Headquarters in New York that his country will not act upon Netanyahu's electoral pledge immediately, at least not until the U.S. reveals Trump's backchannel peace plan.

Dannon said he hoped the plan will be released in a few weeks. Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that Trump's peace plan is scheduled to be unveiled in June.

Palestinians, on the other hand, are deeply cynical of both Trump and his so-called "deal of the century" and therefore concerned about what might eventually happen in West Bank once they reject the deal.

Palestinians argue with Israeli border police over the removal of a Palestinian tent whose owners said they were informed by the Israeli forces that they didn't obtain a permit to erect the tent, in Susiya Village in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, April 18, 2019. /Reuters Photo

Martin Indyk, a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former U.S. assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs who has also served as a special envoy for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations in 2013-14, justified the Palestinian anxiety.

"Israeli right-wing leaders have long argued that Trump's presidency is the perfect moment to advance their annexationist agenda for the West Bank. Netanyahu in the past has resisted this move, understanding that the United States would oppose it. But by recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan, Trump has given them all a green light," he reasoned in an experts' survey from the Carnegie Middle East Center.

Concurring with Indyk, Sarah Yerkes, a fellow in the Carnegie Middle East Program, argued that if Israel were to annex major settlement blocs or the 60 percent of the West Bank territory it controls today, "there is a high likelihood that the Trump administration would recognize that annexation very quickly."

While there was significant uproar from the international community over the U.S. recognition of Israel's annexation of the Golan Heights recently, the fact that none of that noise had any real impact on the U.S. sent a signal to the administration that recognizing Israeli annexation of the West Bank would be low-risk, she noted.

An end of two-state solution?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (R) speaks to Donald Trump, a Republican presidential candidate, in New York, September 25, 2016. /Reuters Photo

It is no secret that extending Israeli sovereignty to West Bank settlements is a priority for Netanyahu's Likud party, which was voted to power again in last month's Knesset elections, and others on the Israeli right.

Political parties favoring a two-state solution got barely 15 percent of the vote, giving Netanyahu's new government enough room for unilateral, U.S.-backed moves, without much resistance from its parliamentary opposition.

Citing that no Trump spokesman has contradicted Netanyahu's might-makes-right assertion, Indyk underscored that "The U.S. President is not committed to a two-state solution, he allows for no Palestinian aspirations in Jerusalem, and he judges these issues not in terms of the negative impact they would have on his efforts to achieve the 'deal of the century,' but rather for their political effect."

"President Donald Trump cares more for publicity stunts than Israeli or Palestinian security. Even if his administration releases its notional peace plan, the president will continue deferring to territorial maximalists, including those in his own administration and the Israeli government," remarked Diana B Greenwald, assistant professor of political science at the City College of New York.

Agreeing with Greenwald, Indyk argued that Trump, facing his own re-election next year, will go to any extent in securing his Evangelical base.

"Those voters firmly believe that the West Bank was given to the Jews by God, citing the Bible for their justification. Thus if a right-wing and religious coalition government in Israel decides to annex the parts of the West Bank that Israel controls, the Evangelicals will surely press Trump to recognize it, just as he did the Golan," he explained. "It's unlikely he will give it a second thought, especially if the Palestinians have by then rejected his peace plan."

What are the options for Palestinians?

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (C) chairs a session of the weekly cabinet meeting, in Ramallah in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, April 29, 2019. /Reuters Photo

A Bloomberg report on Monday revealed that Trump's peace deal is likely to be a recognition that the Hundred Years War between the Jews and Arabs in Palestine is over. The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) leadership will be presented with a document of surrender, on what amounts to a take-it-or-leave-it basis.

Middle East watchers believe that such a deal would leave very little leverage for the Palestinian leadership. A refusal to engage will be an invitation to the U.S. and Israel to unilaterally establish a new order in West Bank.

Face with such a precarious situation, what would the Palestinians do?

Analysts say that while some Palestinian leaders hope to do nothing, outwait Trump and perhaps get a less pro-Israel president in 2020; others may consider appealing to international organizations like the United Nations, the International Criminal Court or the European Union. Past experience suggests that such moves may draw sympathy and a word of support but may not impact the realities on the ground.

Describing the unenviable position that the Palestinians find themselves in, senior French diplomat Gerard Arnaud said: “Everywhere in the history of mankind, when there is a negotiation between two sides, the more powerful is imposing terms on the weaker party. That's the basis of [the Trump Plan]. It will be a proposal very close to what the Israelis want.”

Yerkes, however, predicted that a backlash against a likely Israeli annexation of the West Bank would not only kill any chance of reaching a peace deal that the Trump administration has made a top policy priority, it would also invite severe blowback from key regional allies such as Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia.

(Cover: A general view of houses in the Israeli settlement of Maale Adumim, in the occupied West Bank, February 15, 2017. /Reuters Photo)

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