Cautious optimism about Brexit from some EU leaders clashed with negativity from others in Salzburg on Wednesday, but as speculation swirls about a special EU summit in November to strike a final deal the larger obstacles continue to lie inside the UK.
On Wednesday evening British Prime Minister Theresa May urged leaders of the other 27 EU member states to respond in kind to the compromises she had already made in her Chequers plan – with the Irish border question still the primary sticking point.
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May appeals to fellow EU leaders
May's plan opposed by 80 rebels in her party
But if May can strike a deal with the EU, the terms must be approved by the British parliament and the European parliament before the March 2019 deadline. And the compromises of the Chequers proposal have united all sides of the Brexit debate in the UK – nobody likes it.
Even the man in charge of delivering it, Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, this week admitted that the proposal had shortcomings: "It may not be perfect, but it's the most credible plan."
May's plan
Under May's Chequers plan, the UK would sign up to a common rule book with the EU for trade in goods and a combined customs area – essentially staying close to the bloc in several areas.
She argues that the blueprint would avoid a hard border with Northern Ireland while allowing frictionless trade to continue, and delivering freedom for the UK in making border policy and laws.
Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May commences a meeting with her cabinet to discuss the government's Brexit plans at Chequers, Britain, on July 6, 2018. /VCG Photo
It is a grand compromise that will require further compromises before the EU agrees to it.
As May insists its "my deal or no deal," and refuses to countenance delaying the negotiating period or another referendum, support for her plan is hard to find.
Opposition to the right...
May's Conservatives are split on Europe, and have been for decades. Internal divisions were one of the reasons the Brexit referendum was called.
Ahead of the party's annual conference at the end of September, those divisions are likely to be amplified further. While there are many agendas at play, three broad groups exist.
Boris Johnson, former UK foreign secretary, is among the Conservative MPs who oppose Theresa May's Chequers plan. /VCG Photo
The first, many of whom are members of the European Research Group, has no appetite for compromise and want a clean break from the EU – even leaving without a deal. The second accepts that Britons voted to leave and reluctantly backs May's compromise proposal. The third wants at minimum a close relationship with the EU, and ideally a second referendum.
...to the left
The opposition Labour Party is expected to vote against any Brexit deal put forward to parliament, and is likely to announce a change of policy and support a second referendum – or People's Vote – on Brexit at its annual conference at the beginning of next week.
London Mayor Sadiq Khan has called for a second referendum on Brexit. /VCG Photo
The issue is not simple for the party, not least because its leader is a longstanding critic of the EU and its MPs are far from united behind him. Such is the split, there are growing rumors that a new pro-European party could be formed peeling off centrist Labour MPs.
Labour is heavily funded by trade unions, and they have come out strongly against Brexit. A recent YouGov survey suggested union members favor a second vote by a 2:1 margin, and high profile Labour figures like London mayor Sadiq Khan have expressed support.
...down the middle
Centrists are also opposed. Former prime ministers Tony Blair and Sir John Major, together with former deputy prime minister Sir Nick Clegg, are among those leading resistance to Brexit.
Longstanding talk of a new centrist party has been reignited in recent weeks, while the moderate Liberal Democrats have long called for another referendum.
...and from the side
The DUP, the small Northern Irish party the Conservatives aligned with after losing its governing majority in the 2017 general election, has spoken out against the Chequers plan and voiced support for a plan put forward by the ERG.
The Scottish Nationalist Party, meanwhile, holds 35 seats in parliament and is also opposed to the Chequers plan. It hasn't backed a second referendum, but has called for the negotiation period to be extended.
What happens next?
May this week insisted the choice for the EU and Britain was "my deal or no deal," but in reality there are multiple options – just not a lot of time.
The British prime minister is pushing for a deal resembling her Chequers plan. She may get that, but pushing it through a reluctant parliament as the least worst option is far from assured.
Leaving the EU without a deal and falling back on World Trade Organization terms remains possible, and is favored by hardline Brexiteers – who have made noises about unseating May.
Another leader could look to extend the negotiating period and strike a fresh deal with the EU.
And though May has ruled out a second referendum, pressure is growing. If it doesn't look as though she can get a deal through the UK parliament, another referendum or a general election would be almost inevitable.