What Trump's Syria withdrawal means to global powers

World
Europe

Editor's note: Hisham AbuBakr Metwally is the first economist researcher at the Central Department for Export & Import Policy under the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Trade and Industry. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

On December 19, U.S. President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria after defeating the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), saying his forces had achieved the goal of destroying ISIL.

The withdrawal comes as a confirmation of a previous statement by the U.S. president in a speech in Ohio on April 3 this year. During the speech, President Trump said: "I want to get out. I want to bring our troops back home."

Trump's decision to pull troops out of Syria also came after a phone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on December 14.

So, given that the world is preoccupied with Trump's decision, what does it mean to the global powers?

A convoy of US forces armored vehicles drives near Manbij, Syria, March 5, 2018. /VCG Photo

U.S.: A makeshift approach

The U.S. president sees things from two perspectives.

First, President Trump thinks that the mission of defeating ISIL has been accomplished.

Second, he thinks it is not a good deal as he sees the U.S. troops in Syria as a free offer not strategic interest for the U.S. and, therefore it is best to withdraw when there is no one to pay for their stay.

The number of these troops is not large -- about 2,000 soldiers, whose duties are not to combat, but basically train the Syrian democratic forces and provide logistical support inside Syria.

But their presence on the Syrian territory near the Turkish border in the north was an obstacle facing the Turkish forces to deploy their troops against the Kurdish forces, whom Turkey calls terrorist and wants eliminated.

The withdrawal is not complete as these troops will move to the vicinity of the Syrian border inside the Iraqi territory at Anbar base. These troops can return at any time and quickly deploy in 14 sites within the Syrian territory.

The U.S. president wants to restore a good relationship with Turkey, which has been strained recently when Turkey over pastor Andrew Brunson. Turkey is an important ally for the U.S. in the Middle East that Washington cannot easily abandon, in a hope of countering Iran's influence in the region.

Russia: Still a major player in the region

For Russia, the decision is good as it allows Bashar al-Assad's forces to control the rest of the Syrian territory and avoid a direct clash with U.S. forces. It also reinforces Russia's position in the Middle East and proves that Moscow still plays a larger role in local affairs.

But it may put Russia and its ally Assad in a direct confrontation with Turkey, the stronghold of Syrian resistance, if they try to restore the northern part of Syria.

Iran: A chance to gain more influence

Iran sees the decision as a great opportunity for it to gain more influence and reach the Mediterranean through the Syrian territories and Lebanon.

Thus, Iran can link its troops deployed in Iraq with Syria and Lebanon to become a major force in the region and have the greatest impact in the future.

Saudi Arabia: Under more pressure

Riyadh is exhausted from the war in Yemen. What's even worse, after many steps taken by the crown prince to persecute dissidents, the country is in a fragile domestic situation. Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who was killed inside the Saudi Embassy in Istanbul, is a good case in point.

The withdrawal decision puts more pressure on Saudi Arabia to counter the growing Iranian threat and prevent extremists from re-emerging in Syria and threatening Saudi Arabia's stability.

Turkey: An eased relation with U.S.

Turkey sees Trump's decision as a response to Ankara's repeated requirements to withdraw. After the disappearance of the ISIL threat, Turkey is now all eyes on what it sees as the danger coming from the Kurds in northern Syria, the so-called Syrian Democratic Forces backed and protected by the United States.

Turkey is preparing large forces to carry out military operations in northern and eastern Syria and has been waiting for the U.S. to evacuate these areas and start its military operations and eliminate terrorists as called by Turkey.

Turkish-backed Syrian fighters prepare to move towards Manbij, Syria, December 25, 2018 /VCG Photo

Turkey will also seek to exploit America's exit from the Syrian territories to pressure Russia and Iran to reach a final solution on the Syrian crisis.

Israel: An opportunity to end military operation in Lebanon

Of course, Israel knows that the U.S. withdrawal is a tactic and therefore does not panic about it leaving the Syrian territory and leaving Iran to supply Hezbollah with weapons and equipment to attack Israel.

Of course, it would be a good opportunity for Israel to end its declared military operations to hit Hezbollah tunnels and possibly expand its operations by hitting some strategic targets inside Syria's lands.

EU: A deep concern over refugee issue

The EU is deeply concerned by the decision. The situation in Syria could explode again if Russia and Assad forces decide to attack the opposition forces in the north, threatening a new humanitarian disaster and hundreds of thousands of people fleeing to Europe.

Therefore, Germany and France expressed their deep concern over the issue and hope to work with the United States to prevent new refugees in the north of Syria from fleeing to Europe.

China: Seeking a peaceful environment

China wishes to stabilize the region for the purpose of providing ease to its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Over the past five years, BRI has been built on the basis of participation in development and trade in the Middle East. As a result, peace in the region benefits China greatly. The withdrawal of all troops from Syria and Syria's return to stability is one of the most important things China is seeking to support its initiative.

In the end, the troops' withdrawal process may be reversed as a tactic in the case of failure to reach a final agreement.

(If you want to contribute and have specific expertise, please contact us at opinions@cgtn.com.)