How will the Catalan issue develop after Spain's general election?

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Europe

Editor's note: Liu Mingli is the deputy director of the Institute of European Studies at China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

The snap election in Spain is being held on April 28, which is caused by the rejection of budget in the parliament. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, which holds only 84 of 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies (lower house of the parliament), came into power after Mariano Rajoy lost in a no-confidence vote.

A major mandate of Sánchez's government is to ease tensions between Madrid and Barcelona. But the block of the budget shows that there are still huge differences between Sánchez's government and Catalan pro-independence parties.

Now, the question is what kind of difference could an election make and how the Catalan issue will develop? Given the distinct language, culture and history of Catalonia, it's not hard to conclude that Catalan independence issue will not be resolved soon whatever the result of the election.

There is no quick or easy solution. But there are reasons that we can expect this issue could be mitigated to some extent.

Firstly, a new government may help political stability. Sánchez's government may be the weakest in the past four decades with only 84 seats in the lower house. It's too difficult for this government to reach consensus between the pro-unity parties and pro-independence ones.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez seen speaking during the Election Congress of the European Socialist Party (PES) in Madrid, February 23, 2019. /VCG Photo

Each side has a reason to insist on its position and hopes the government could make concessions. After the election, if a ruling coalition with a majority of seats in parliament can be formed, it will be conducive to political stability and consensus on major issues.

Late last year, People's Party (PP) and Ciudadanos formed a coalition, with Vox's backing, which kept the Socialists out after regional elections in Andalusia.

Earlier this year, more than 45,000 people turned up for a "United Spain" rally organized by these parties. Some analysts believe one plausible outcome of the elections could be an alliance between the three rightwing parties.

Secondly, changes in the economic situation could help ease tensions. There are complex historical reasons for Catalonia's independence, but it's also directly related to Spain's economic situation after the financial crisis.

Catalonia, a relatively wealthy region with a large contribution to the national budget, has seen its fiscal pressures increase after the financial crisis, exacerbating already existing tensions.

Newly elected Catalan Regional President Quim Torra gives a speech during a session at the Catalan parliament in Barcelona, May 14, 2018. /VCG Photo

Currently, the Spain economy has stepped into the track of steady recovery. By contrast, Catalonia has seen continued political tensions following the October 2017 independence referendum, with a clear negative impact on investment and tourism, and an economy that has lagged behind the national average. The economic downturn may make Catalans rethink independence.

In addition, the new budget, which was rejected, includes a sharp rise in investment in Catalonia. It shows that the Spanish government is thinking more about what Catalans want — this help to mitigate the economic factors that have spurred Catalan independence.

Thirdly, Catalan independence has not received a positive response from the international community. Some member states of the European Union, in particular, have sent clear signals that they do not support Catalan independence and will not accept an independent Catalonia as a member of the EU.

Moreover, the political situation in the UK has been continuously tense after the Brexit referendum; economic growth has been restrained; the voice of remain and the second referendum has been rising. All this could prompt Catalans to consider whether they would be better off leaving Spain and the European Union.

The turnout in the 2017 referendum was only 43 percent of registered voters, despite a high 92 percent in favor of independence. Recent polls suggest that support for unity seems to be rising, which may help ease tensions.

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