Business
2018.10.11 23:23 GMT+8

How are Trump's trade policies affecting emerging markets?

By Nayan, You Yang & Shang Jianglong

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a major report titled "World Economic Outlook" on Tuesday that cut the world's economic growth forecast by 0.2 to 3.7 percent, citing Trump's trade policies as a major reason for the change.

The IMF report clearly mentions how the trade war started by the US is hurting global economic growth, particularly in emerging markets. 

According to the report's estimates, US trade tariffs would marginally affect China's growth. The IMF has cut its projection for China by around 0.2 to 6.2 percent. The estimated loss to next year's gross domestic product could be just above 1.5 percent. 

CGTN Photo

But, neighboring India has been severely hit by US policies, whose rupee is Asia's worst performing in 2018. Experts cite the strengthening of the US dollar, along with the rise in global crude oil prices due to rising tensions between Iran and the US. And US sanctions on Indian steel and aluminum imports aren't helping matters. 

CGTN Photo

Pakistan's economic condition is worse. The currency has lost one-fifth of its value, and foreign debt is just below 100 billion US dollars. In September, the US announced it would cut 300 million US dollars in military aid to Pakistan, accusing it of not doing enough to tackle terrorism. The US is also opposing IMF's possible bailout to save Pakistan from an economic disaster. 

Turkey was the flag bearer of emerging economies until early this year. But it's witnessed a sudden flight of foreign capital, due to rising interest rates in the US. Its currency, the lira, has lost around 40 percent of its value against the US dollar. The IMF, in its latest report has cut the country's 2019 growth forecast from four percent to less than 0.5 percent. 

CGTN Photo

Emerging markets have steered the global economy for two decades now, which contribute over 75 percent of the global growth in output and consumption. From 2010 to 2016, seven major emerging markets accounted for almost one-fourth of global economic output. In 2016 alone, these emerging markets contributed one percentage point to the total 2.4-percent global growth rate.

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