Optimism has never really been a thing for modern England fans. Perhaps the emotional hangover from Euro ’96’s semi-final loss to Germany was just too much for the psyche of the country and the team. But by 2018, the perpetual bi-annual group stage grind and the inevitable first-round knockout to a country that knows the rules of the game has left England unaware of what to do in the face of victory.

With six points going into the final group game against Belgium, fans on social media were actively and completely seriously suggesting that England should throw the game against Belgium in order to go into the round of 16 to try and grab a more favorable draw. Positive against Tunisia and record-breaking against Panama, it seems the nation didn’t know how to handle success and the potential that goes along with it. Unfortunately, it seems the players felt the same way as the England-of-now devolved into the England-of-then.

The opening ten minutes or so established a high pace but the style of play suggested England were greatly out matched. England kicked off in a 3-1-4-2 formation that had Jamie Vardy and Marcus Rashford up front, and quickly they established themselves, probing through the Belgian side and setting up early chances with the help of “Broadway” Danny Rose and Ruben Loftus-Cheek. With Jesse Lingard, Harry Kane, Raheem Sterling and everyone else form the previous games on the bench, this was clearly the B-team, but they were still giving it a go. And then Youri Tielmans, out of nowhere, from about thirty yards away, curls a shot in that Jordan Pickford has to save. Several minutes of England pressure later and suddenly the England box is full, and Pickford needs Gary Cahill to clear his lines after he dropped a trick shot by Michy Batshuayi.

It must have begun to dawn on people that England didn’t have to lose anything intentionally. Their best was being swatted away without too much effort, and Belgium could turn to be a threat on and off at will. Both teams faced minnows in the group, and both had come into the game with the same goals for and against but, in finally facing each other, it felt like England had been really trying while Belgium had been coasting; playing like a more intense Uruguay and holding back until it was necessary.

By halftime, it was still 0-0 and had settled into the same rhythms as France vs. Denmark with both teams knowing a place in the knockout round was waiting for them regardless. The only important difference is that Belgium always appeared threatening; they never tried much - crosses from Adnan Januzaj to Marouane Fellaini, mostly - and, at the break, both sides must have discussed the tangible tension that was arising from such simple play. A side like Gareth Southgate’s England shouldn’t have been so scared of what Belgium was doing; yes, this wasn’t a full-strength team, and it was Belgium who ended up with both yellow cards, but it was testy any time Belgium pressed down the pitch for no reason at all.

When the second half began, Belgium, never out of second gear, became lackadaisical and laconic, holding the ball for long stretches and only going for it when they felt like it - if it wasn’t too much trouble. It’s a cocky way of playing and can easily backfire but, after seeing what England was capable of in the first half, it soon became clear this wasn’t (just) an exercise in ego-stroking, it was the key to putting this England side away. For all his updates on the field, 50 minutes in, this England side still has the small team mentality that has crippled everyone from Glenn Hoddle’s side in ’98 to Roy Hodgson’s in 2014.

Faced with players who think they’re better than they are (regardless of if that’s true), England freeze and in the 51st minute, Januzaj, tarnished as a reject from David Moyes’ Manchester United, scored a contender for goal of the tournament practically out of thin air. Arjen Robben-esque in execution, he came in from the right and then decided he could slide past Rose and curl one into the top-left corner. Rose wasn’t going to stop him, Pickford wasn’t going to stop the ball and England weren’t going to do anything other than savor the sight of it.

Around the hour mark, the argy-bargy has topped. Thomas Vermaelen suffered a head wound from going head-to-head with Vardy, and that seemed to be enough for both sides. After all, deep down, they both knew they were safe, and this was virtually meaningless. Belgium did, anyway; the body language from the England side was unnerving. They hadn’t been behind before in this tournament, and it seemed like they didn’t know how to handle it.

It ended 1-0, and the familiar sound of Three Lions couldn’t be heard. The fans were too busy realizing they had to be careful about what they wished for, realizing that maybe the team should have given Belgium a game instead of capitulating on the promise of future success. A loss to Belgium was preferred because it meant avoiding the top half of the bracket which includes Brazil, only that logic only works if England knew how to walk before running, and that is in doubt. The Brazil clash would take place in the quarterfinals, assuming the Selecao beat Mexico and England beat Japan. Now England faces Colombia. Even with James Rodriguez limping off the pitch at the end of their Japan game, it isn’t going to be a walkover, especially if their showing against Belgium wasn’t just an off night but how they actually are when the belief has gone.

Perhaps it isn’t coming home after all.