What will happen next: Possible Brexit scenarios

World
Europe

02:29

Theresa May survived the no-confidence vote, but is she on track to deliver Brexit? Here's a quick update of the timeline and possible Brexit scenarios.

To give itself time to build consensus, the Theresa May government has delayed the Brexit vote to January 2019. The deadline for May is January 21.

If her government fails to put its Brexit agreement to vote, or if Parliament rejects her plan by January 21, government's power to renegotiate the deal would be curtailed.

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But if all goes through as planned, the UK would attend its last EU summit as a member in the third week of March.

Deal or no deal, At 2300 GMT on March 29, the UK will formally exit the European Union. Then, a transition period of 19 months would begin, giving both the EU and the UK enough time to negotiate the terms of their future relationship.

In October this year, both parties agreed to extend the transition period, in case they fail to finalize a formal agreement by December 31, 2020.

An arrangement of British newspapers showing front page stories reporting the result of the Conservative Party confidence vote in the leadership of Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May, December 13, 2018. /VCG Photo

Now, lets analyze the possible scenarios. Number one, the British Parliament approves the withdrawal bill before the deadline of March 29 and the UK leaves the European bloc.

Experts believe that, unless UK politicians put up a united front to back Theresa May, it's highly unlikely that this scenario will become a reality.

The next possibility, analysts say is the most probable one. The UK Parliament rejects the government's deal and, thus begins a complex process.

According to the EU Withdrawal Act, in case of a no-deal scenario by January 21, the government will have to make a statement to Parliament setting out what it intends to do next.

Parliament will then have an opportunity to vote on the government plans. The MPs could accept, reject or even amend government plans, though the amendment motions would not be legally binding on the British government.

Nonetheless, a withdrawal bill would still need Parliament's approval to formally exit the Union.

In the present situation, a consensus within the political class looks highly doubtful, which ultimately leads the UK to a no-deal Hard Brexit on March 29.

Economists say this scenario would be disastrous for the country as free movement of people and goods would end, and it would result in a long-dreaded hard-border between Ireland and the UK's northern Ireland.