What's at stake for Saudi relations with the West amid Khashoggi murder case

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03:07

On October 2, Jamal Khashoggi entered the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. He never came out. The Saudis now admit he was killed inside the building that day.

The Saudi family and in particular Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, known as MBS, had claimed they had no knowledge of what happened to Khashoggi, despite reports from Turkey that he was murdered.

More than two weeks after his disappearance, Saudi officials now say a fight broke out which resulted in the journalist's death.

Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul cordoned off by Turkish police. /Reuters Photo

One unnamed Saudi official claimed that the 15-man Saudi team came to Istanbul to convince him to return to Saudi Arabia. They allegedly threatened to kidnap him if he refused, which he did.

The Saudi official said that his death resulted from a chokehold.

The Saudi government said 18 Saudis have been arrested and five top officials fired. No mention of MBS involvement. US President Donald Trump on Friday appeared to accept the Saudi explanation as credible although he later said on Saturday that he was not satisfied.

Belgrad Forest in Istanbul where police searched for evidence in the Khashoggi case. /Reuters Photo

When it comes to US and Saudi relations, there's a lot at stake. US officials, especially President Trump, have emphasized that Saudi Arabia is a significant strategic ally. Trump has stated the US has arms and trade deals worth billions of dollars with the Saudis and that cutting ties with them could cost hundreds of thousands of American jobs.

Trump stated that it's not helpful for the US to cancel Saudi orders, stating "that hurts us far more than it hurts them.”

Saudis have some vital resources that empower them, such as oil. As the world's biggest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia has openly used oil as a threat.

US Secretary of State Pompeo with King Salman in Riyadh. /Reuters Photo

A political economist, Ozan Sakar said that if Saudi Arabia "went to a limitation on petrol production, we could witness a significant price hike in oil. This would create inflation pressure in the world, and this is Saudi Arabia's biggest leverage."

Saudi Arabia is also a key strategic partner of the US in the terms of global security concerns, particularly Iran.

Gareth Jenkins, a Senior Associate Fellow with the Silk Road Studies Program and Turkey Initiative, stressed that the Trump administration has made Saudis the center of the US campaign to try and isolate Iran. He said, "the Saudis have been working very closely with the US to try and persuade people in the region, not to cooperate with Iran and try to isolate Iran."

US Secretary of State Pompeo with Saudi Crown Prince in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. /Reuters Photo

Turkish officials have been conducting their own investigation into Khashoggi's death including searches within the consulate. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan is expected to make a statement on Khashoggi's killing on October 23. Analysts say the strategic alliance between Turkey and Saudi Arabia is also a delicate balance.

Jenkins pointed out that “there is also investment and quite a lot of funds coming from the Gulf countries which are aligned with Saudi, so there is a risk for Turkey.” Jenkins also said that Saudi Arabia, as the home to two major Muslim holy sites, Mecca and Medina, also make it a sensitive country to deal with.

Saudi Arabian national flag at Saudi consulate building in Istanbul, Turkey. /Reuters Photo

There are still many questions to be answered by the Saudis including what happened to Khashoggi's body.

Once the investigation is complete, Turkish and US officials may face some tough decisions regarding what kind of action to take against the Saudi government, if any.