Opinion: Thucydides’s Trap: Is war between China and the US inevitable?
Updated 15:55, 25-Aug-2018
CGTN's World Insight
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“It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.”
—Greek historian Thucydides
Greek historian Thucydides pondered over the consequences of the challenge posed by an emerging power to the dominant power two and a half millennia ago while writing about the Peloponnesian War and came to the conclusion that war in such situations was inevitable.
The idea that conflict between a rising power and a ruling power is the norm rather than the exception is referred to as the "Thucydides Trap" by well-known American scholar, Graham Allison, in his book, “Destined for War: Can America and China escape Thucydides’s Trap?”
His conclusion is that war between the US and China is not inevitable but it is possible.
“When the rising power, like Athens 2,500 years ago, or Germany 100 years ago, or China today, threatens to displace the ruling power like the US today, in general the outcome is a war. Catastrophic war,” said Allison, during an interview with CGTN’s World Insight with Tian Wei.
“But not [in] all the cases. I looked at the last 500 years and find 16 cases when the rising power turns to displace the ruling power; 12 of them end in war, four of them not in war. So to say war is inevitable is a big mistake.”
But the stakes are still high. “On the one hand China feels bigger and stronger, [feels it] deserves more say and more sway, feels like it’s being confined; and the Americans say ‘wait a minute, we have to cling to the status quo because that is the order provided.’”
So, has that tension finally resulted in the current trade conflict between China and the US? Allison’s answer is yes. “If it is escalated, it could get both China and the US doing things that even though they don’t make any sense, they are feeling the other is pushing me around. And under those circumstances, it becomes very dangerous. And if I were betting, things will get worse before they get worse,” Allison warned. “In this tense relationship or this dangerous dynamic, each misunderstands the other. The risk of misunderstanding is very great. ”
How can the two powers avoid a possible ultimate war? Allison suggests both countries recognize the stakes for each other, and more people will start to see the big picture. “More people in the system, in the congress, in the business community, in the think tank community, in the academic community [will see] we have many vital interests between the US and China. Having a severe competition can be very constructive, but it needs to be within a framework.”
Allison concluded by saying, “In this difficult transition, trying to cope with it requires a great leap of imagination.”
World Insight with Tian Wei is a 45-minute global affairs and debate show on CGTN. It airs weekdays at 10:15 p.m. BJT (1415GMT) with rebroadcasts at 4:15 a.m. BJT (20:15GMT).