Theresa May's 'short extension' has longstanding problems

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Europe

Editor's note: Tom Fowdy is a British analyst of Politics and International Relations. Graduating from Durham and Oxford University, he frequently writes on topics pertaining to China, the DPRK, Britain and the U.S. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Following the third defeat of her withdrawal agreement in Parliament late last week, and the subsequent rejection of alternative recommendatory options by the House of Commons on Monday, Theresa May announced on Tuesday evening that she will appeal to the European Union to ask for another extension on Brexit, acting before an April 12th deadline the commission had set for Britain to do so.

She stated that the extension should be "short" and will strive to avoid participating in the elections. As she runs out of options at home, she has also appealed to Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn for help, a move which has angered hard-line Eurosceptic.

The recent developments only serve to further undermine confidence in the government. The situation is rapidly collapsing beneath her feet. Theresa May's appeal for the extension will be granted, but not on liberal or conciliatory terms. European leaders are growing impatient.

Britain's main opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn poses with a copy of the Political Declaration setting out the framework for the future UK-EU relationship, in his office in the Houses of Parliament in London, April 2, 2019. /VCG Photo.

Thus, given her strict adherence to the negotiated withdrawal agreement, the prime minister's claim that a short extension can be somehow offered to get it through, and be somehow backed by support of the Labour Party is a total non-starter which is unlikely to come to fruition. It doesn't constitute a plan.

Noting that a breakthrough is not close, it is likely Brussels will demand Britain participates in the European elections whether she likes it or not, accumulating in another humiliation for the prime minister.

Pressure is growing on Theresa May. Despite the widespread political failure and unsuitability of her withdrawal agreement, she continues to look for other ways to somehow get it through. Of course, as has been said enough it is the only deal which Europe have been willing to offer, putting pressure on her to oblige the United Kingdom to it.

However, she has not been open to confronting why it is unpopular. Vote after vote has been dismissed. Cornered, she has had no choice but to ask for a Brexit extension. Yet, looking at her speech in announcing such, even then she continues to stubbornly adhere to her agreement as the only way. She wants to make the argument to Brussels that an extension should be short until it gets through, the UK doesn't need to participate in elections and that the Labour Party can somehow find common ground with her.

British Prime Minister Theresa May gives a news conference after a cabinet meeting following yesterday's alternative Brexit options vote, outside Downing Street, London, Britain, April 2, 2019. /VCG Photo.

As harsh as it sounds, this is not a strategy. It is more akin to delusion. Although Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has said he would be happy to meet with her and discuss the issue of Brexit, as has been noted the adversarial nature of UK politics means that any collaboration cannot come without a huge price to both sides, limiting what can be seriously done. Members of either party will protest that their side is selling out to the other.

Labour remainers would be infuriated if Corbyn agreed to back a “Tory Brexit” and Conservative Eurosceptics would be actually enraged if Theresa May sold out to Labour. Corbyn himself has everything to lose from being willing to save the prime minister's skin. The crisis has seen the government plummet in the polls at Labour's gain.

The opposition are thus very much aware that as long as the Brexit crisis lingers on, the more the government will appear weak, incompetent and unpopular. Why would anyone bail Theresa May out and give them a free pass? In this case if even small concessions are to be made, Labour would require returns which give them the political upper hand.

For example, such might include an agreement to pass some elements of the withdrawal agreement in exchange for Theresa May's resignation or an election, or a "soft Brexit" outcome. Of course, this is not politically convenient for the Conservatives either. So we shouldn't expect much here. Labour are happy for the most part for the government to be pushed to the brink.

Thousands of leave supporters gathered in Parliament Square to protest against the delay to Brexit, on the day the UK had been due to leave the EU on 29th March 2019 in London, United Kingdom. /VCG Photo.

Given this, Theresa May's request for a "short Brexit extension" to get her deal through is likely to fall on deaf ears and come to the annoyance of EU leaders. They are all concerned about the effects of prolonged uncertainty on businesses and the disruption of other European matters.

Thus, such a plan is likely to be dismissed for the obvious inclination it isn't tangible. Recognizing the UK is in a state of political gridlock, they are likely to push for a longer extension which induces stability of course forces Britain to participate in the European Parliament elections. They have no real reason to believe the crisis can be solved before that time.

In summary, Theresa May doesn't have the alternative plan Europe wants. Her words, her actions, increasingly resemble desperation and an inability to come with the political reality. Aware that her own party and personal legacy rests on the eventual success of this Brexit agreement, she is unwilling to part with it and thus is undermining her country in the process.

The idea that the Labour party will openly intervene to save her premiership is wishful thinking, and it isn't going to be bought by Brussels either. Come the emergency EU summit on April 10, their demands are going to be strict, rigid and uncompromising to London – it isn't looking good.

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