Editor's note: Luo Hongbo is a senior researcher at the Institute of European Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

A few days ago, a serious political crisis broke out between Italy and France. On February 5, Di Maio, leader of the Five-Star Movement, an Italian populist party, and the Deputy Prime Minister and Economic Development Minister of the Italian government, met with representatives of the “yellow vest” movement against French President Macron, causing great discontent among the French authorities.

Two days later, the French government recalled its ambassador to Italy to protest against Italy's interference in French internal affairs. This is the first time France has recalled its ambassador to Italy since World War II. This serious diplomatic protest prompted the Italian government to think carefully and reiterate its willingness to talk to President Macron and the French government.

French President Macron spoke with Italian President Mattarella over the telephone on the 12th. Both sides stressed the importance of the relationship between the two countries. On the 15th, the French ambassador to Italy returned to Rome. Tensions between France and Italy seemed to have eased.

But, will the Italy-France relationship go through troughs again in the future?

From my point of view, the contradiction between Italy and France will still exist, and there may be wrangle and finger-pointing. The main reasons are as follows:

Firstly, people in power have divergent political philosophies, which can be summarized as the contradiction between "populism" and "elitism". What populists call elites is not the traditional economic and political establishment, but a group opposite to what they call "people", that is to say, populists divide the society into two opposing groups: people and elites.

Whether dealing with domestic issues or EU-related issues, French leaders insist on reform under the established "elite" system, while the leaders of Italian ruling party advocate for breaking the establishment and building a new system that works for the "people". 

Secondly, there are differences between the leaders of Italy and France in finding solutions to some specific problems. For example, the EU countries have yet to reach an agreement on the immigration and refugee policy and the number of people to be received by each member state. 

Therefore, the differences between Italy and France on this issue have yet to be resolved. In the future, there may also be differences between the two countries over solutions to other specific issues. Therefore, frictions, large and small, between the two countries will be inevitable.

However, the probability is not very high for the two countries to fall out again and recall the ambassadors to the other side. The main reason is that the two countries are important economic and trade partners.

Export of processed products is the lifeline of the Italian economy. According to Statista, France is Italy's second largest trading partner after Germany. Italy's exports to France accounted for 10.3 percent of its total exports in 2017 and Italy's imports from France accounted for 8.8 percent of its total imports. 

What is worth mentioning is that Italy has long maintained a trade surplus with France, which reached 12.2 billion euros in 2016. More than 50 percent of Italy's import and export trade is completed in the EU single market.

Italy's bad relations with France will directly affect its economic and trade relations with other EU member states. Under the circumstance of slowing growth of international trade, the economy of both countries is in a difficult patch.

In particular, the Italian economy already experienced a technical recession in the second half of 2018. Both countries will try their best to avoid further escalation of the tension and a breakdown in relations.

Italy and France are both founding members of the European Union. The contradiction between Italy and France reflects to a certain extent that Europe is facing multiple new challenges in the process of integration.

The "populist" and the "elite" are not incompatible nor absolutely confrontational.

If the "elite" blindly oppose the "populist" and refuse to hear the voices from the bottom, the gap will be widened and so will the social contradictions. If the "populist" only see problems instead of finding practical solutions, they can't win the heart of voters in the long run.

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