Why did Ankara release Andrew Brunson?

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Europe

Editor's note: Wang Jin is a research fellow at the Charhar Institute and Syria Research Center of Northwest University in China. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Ankara's decision to release the American pastor, Andrew Brunson on Friday was seen by US president Donald Trump as a "tremendous step" towards a "great relationship" between Turkey and the US.

Brunson had been detained in Turkey since 2016 for his alleged links to the country's Kurdish "terrorists" and the Gulen Movement, which is classified as a terrorist organization by the Turkish government, under the names "Gulenist Terror Organization" and "Parallel State Structure".

Andrew Brunson's detention had led to Washington's sanctions against Turkey, and his case reflected the strained relations between the US and Turkey.

On Saturday, Trump thanked Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for helping in securing Brunson's release. Few hours later, Erdogan also expressed his willingness to improve ties with Washington in a Twitter post: "I hope that the United States and Turkey will continue their cooperation as the allies that they are."

Pastor Andrew Brunson speaks in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, October 13, 2018. /VCG Photo‍

The release of Brunson and the shift of Ankara's attitude towards Washington might be a result of the economic pressure caused by the US sanctions.

Since Washington's economic sanctions came into effect nearly one month ago, Turkey's fragile economy has met with a series of challenges.

Although Ankara has been seeking help from Russia, Iran and Qatar to alleviate its financial and economic problems, the economic plight remain.

According to the report of International Monetary Fund (IMF), Turkey's economic growth may experience a sharp decline, from 3.5 percent in 2018 to 0.4 percent of 2019, and its economy may shrink by 1-2 percent between the last quarter of 2018 and the third quarter of 2019.

High inflation and economic contraction, together with increasing unemployment, may cause stagflation to emerge in the upcoming year in Turkey.

In 2018, Turkey's external debt stock stood at 457 billion US dollars, while over the next year, Turkey will need 181 billion US dollars to roll over maturing debts. Therefore, it is necessary for Turkey to re-normalize its ties with Washington to lift the US sanctions so as to improve its economy.

Meanwhile, Turkey's concern over Kurds in northern Syria, especially the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), has been partly settled by the Turkey-US co-patrol team recently formed in northern Syria.

For Turkey, the Syrian Kurds led by the PYD are a branch of Turkey's Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK), seen as a "terrorist" group in the country. However, PYD is perceived by Washington as a reliable partner in Syria and receives financial and military support from the US.

US President Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the NATO summit in Brussels, Belgium, July 11, 2018. /VCG Photo‍

The formation of the US-Turkey co-patrol team in northern Syria suggests a demarcation of spheres of influence. If Ankara wants to constrain the expansion of the PYD-led Syrian Kurds in northern Syria, it needs US cooperation.

In addition, Turkey tried to use the detention of Brunson as a means to pressure Washington to extradite Fethullah Gulen, the leader of the Gulen Movement, from the US to Turkey. Ankara believes Gulen played a major role in the failed military coup against Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AKP) led by Erdogan in 2016.

However, the arrests of US citizens, including Brunson or US diplomatic staff, over the past few years in Turkey, failed to change Washington's position on this issue. Given the economic pressure caused by US sanctions, it seemed pointless to keep Brunson in Turkey.

However, the release of Andrew Brunson does not mean the strained relations between Ankara and Washington have ended.

After 2002 when AKP government assumed power, Turkey's national identity has been increasingly influenced by the "Neo-Ottomanism" upheld by the AKP government. The "Neo-Ottomanism" promoting both "pan-Islam" and "Pan-Turkish" identities awakens Turkey's regional ambition, and Ankara no longer wants to continue being "submissive" to its Western partners, especially to the US.

Turkey's criticisms against Trump's recognition of Jerusalem as the "capital of Israel", Turkey's rejection of US sanctions against Iran, and Washington's criticisms against Turkey's detention of other US citizens and diplomatic staffs, may re-ignite the tension between Turkey and US in the future.

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