Politics
2018.11.25 18:57 GMT+8

Global Political Calendar: Will deals be struck at the G20 Summit?

By John Goodrich

World leaders gather for the G20 Summit in Argentina, Chinese President Xi Jinping will start a four-nation tour, and the next acts of the Brexit drama will play out.

G20 in Argentina

Argentina will become the first South American country to host the G20 Summit on Friday. With the most powerful political leaders on the planet convening in Buenos Aires, eyes will be on the intrigue of sideline meetings and subplots as much as the main events.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to meet U.S. counterpart Donald Trump amid the ongoing trade dispute as well as attend a gathering of BRICS leaders. Russian President Vladimir Putin is also expected to meet Trump during the two-day summit, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman are both on the guestlist.

Global trade and governance will be high on the agenda and, with COP24 opening in Poland on Sunday, climate change will feature prominently. Who will meet whom, can compromises be struck, and will a joint communique be issued when the summit wraps up on December 1?

Xi's four-nation tour

President Xi's participation in the G20 Summit is part of a four-nation tour, during which he will pay state visits to Spain, Argentina, Panama and Portugal from November 27 to December 5.

The trip is expected to deepen Chinese ties with Latin America and the EU, with a broad range of cooperation documents scheduled to be signed in each country Xi visits.

Vice Premier Liu He will also be on a diplomatic mission this week, delivering the keynote speech at the Hamburg Summit China-Europe Forum during a trip to Germany.

May lobbies for votes

British Prime Minister Theresa May will get some respite from Brexit in Argentina at the weekend - but probably not much. 

As her deal with the EU is already approved by all of the remaining 27 member state leaders, the lobbying campaign to persuade the British parliament to vote in favor and usher the country to an orderly departure from the bloc on March 29, 2019 is well underway. The European Court of Justice will also consider this week whether the UK can unilaterally revoke Article 50, the mechanism by which Brexit was triggered -- potentially an extremely consequential decision. 

Nobody knows how the drama will play out, but at present the odds are against the prime minister getting approval for her deal in December. That uncertainty opens the door to a range of options, from no deal to further negotiations and an extended transition period to a new referendum.   

Day-by-day

Monday: Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is guest of honor at the two-day Hamburg Summit China-Europe Forum 2018, a UN Security Council delegation is in China to meet leaders and visit the China peacekeeping standby force, Russia briefs on the INF nuclear missile control treaty after U.S. threats to pull out, and the first Blue Economy Conference takes place in Nairobi.

Tuesday: Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives in Spain for a three-day state visit, a run-off election for the U.S. Senate seat in Mississippi takes place, the International Berlin Security Conference begins, Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho visits Vietnam, and the European Court of Justice debates whether Britain can revoke Article 50 unilaterally.

Wednesday: Russia, Turkey, and Iran will hold the latest Astana talks on Syria in Kazakhstan, and the second round of the presidential election in Georgia is set to be held.

Thursday: Argentinian President Mauricio Macri and Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte meet ahead of the G20 Summit

Friday: World leaders gather in Argentina for the two-day G20 Summit.  

Saturday: The second day of the G20 Summit takes place, after which President Xi Jinping begins an official state visit to Argentina before traveling on to Panama and Portugal, and Manuel Lopez Obrador is sworn in as president of Mexico.

Sunday: The COP24 United Nations Climate Change conference opens in Katowice, Poland.

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