As the U.S. government shutdown heads toward an entire month, cracks are starting to appear in the president's political resolve to hold out. Having started and held firm in the dispute with the Congress over funding for a wall at the Mexican border, last night Trump made an address, which in contrast to his bellicose rhetoric over the matter, struck a more conciliatory tone.

Rather than playing the political blame game, the president instead called for a reasoned approach to border security and offered to end the shutdown in exchange for offering Democrats concessions on preventing "Dreamers" (children of undocumented migrants who were brought to the country by their parents) from being deported.

Unfortunately for him, leading Democrats in the Congress dismissed it quickly, in Nancy Pelosi's words as a "non-starter" insisting that the president's proposed concessions did not go far enough, continuing to hold firm to their resistance to the wall.

This poses bad news for Trump. The speech suggested that despite Trump's facade of "resolve" and theatrical irrationality toward some issues, the White House is, in fact, feeling the political impact of the shutdown. With the Democrats in the Congress now sensing the cracks starting to appear, they are likely to continue to hold steadfast in their opposition to Trump's wall in the belief they can achieve a major victory and a climbdown for the presidency. This means it is going to hold out for some time yet.

To say exactly who is at fault for the government shutdown is a challenging notion. From a balanced perspective, it is more accurate to say the deadlock is a product of the sharpening polarization of American politics, than simply the fault of Trump or for that matter, the Congress.

Trump's wall has been, for a number of years now, his most iconic policy. The idea is in practice ludicrous and its impact is based more in symbolism, than substance. Nevertheless, his supporters might argue that he is right to hold out on his promise to voters, and shouldn't capitulate to the Congress. Similarly, on the other hand, never have his opponents ever felt they have had such a chance to force what they see as an unhinged and immoral presidency, to come to reason.

In a nutshell, the stakes are high and both sides feel justified in their position as to why they have prolonged this shutdown and held out so firmly, despite the consequences.

But of course, that isn't what politics is about. Instead of true empirical blame based upon evidence, its based on opportunistic blaming and who creates the more effective narrative. This is where Trump is now losing the battle. Since the shutdown began, the president has opted for a tactic of raising fears and stakes on immigration, whilst attributing the blame to the Democrats in the Congress.

In turn, the Democrats have carefully sought to not oppose improving border security and clamping down on illegal immigration, but instead frame the wall as a catastrophic waste of money and a stupid idea stemming from an incompetent president. Instead, they have proposed more cost-effective ways on resolving the same issue, such as technology-based approaches.

Like it or not, the Democrat narrative is winning. All professional polls have seen the public place Trump at the center of the blame for the shutdown. They aren't banning his abject history over "crime and drugs" either. Thus, rather than turning on the Congress, the longer the shutdown drags on the more voters are in fact targeting their political anger at the White House. With Trump having hoped that the pressure would pile upon Pelosi, the opposite has happened. As a man so used to using drastic measures to force others to the table, he is now finding that he himself is having to go cap in hand and offer concessions. It is the Congress who has the upper hand.

If this is the case, why would the Democrats suddenly capitulate to the idea of Trump's wall for some token concessions? For them, this is political gold dust, the jaws of victory. They must be relishing in the fact that he is taking the political flak for this situation and in turn, they are getting close to humiliating the president and scalping his most popular policy, a dismemberment of his signature idea. Despite the growing economic risks felt by the shutdown and the anguish of 800,000 workers without pay, this is likely to make them hold out more, they know there is something to win here.

But just how will Trump respond? It seems unreasonable for him that he could allow his opponents to kill his biggest project so easily. Will he create a distraction elsewhere and divert attention? Will he look for a face-saving compromise that only offers a partial wall? It remains to be seen. Still, there should be no doubts about it that for the first time in his presidency, Trump is now on the receiving end of walls that are not closing in on the Mexican border, but are closing in on him. The cracks are there to see.

(Cover: Snow gathers on a fence surrounding the White House in Washington, January 13, 2019. /VCG Photo)