Thailand in tripartite battle on most complicated votes in history

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02:15

Thailand is heading to the polls on Sunday for the country's most complicated votes in history, with the ballot widely considered to be a battle between three forces: the pro-military faction, populists opposed to the military and the swing forces.

Nearly 51.4 million eligible voters will decide the country's future: towards re-establishing a democratically elected government or recognizing legitimized military rule.

Coup after coup

The Thais are familiar with political instability. The 2014 coup was the 12th time the military has toppled the government since the end of monarchy in the 1930s.

The military then founded the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) at the helm by General Prayut Chan-o-cha, which outlawed political activity with a martial rule.

Thai soldiers sandbag their post at a major intersection in a shopping district in Bangkok, Thailand, May 20, 2014. /VCG Photo

The NCPO drafted a new constitution, giving the military six seats in the unelected upper house, strengthening the Constitutional Court and adopting a system of proportional voting.

The constitution was signed into law by King Maha Vajiralongkorn. He will be officially crowned in May a few days before the election's official results are announced.

How does the PM get elected?

There are a total of 750 seats in parliament and the new constitution gives power to the Senate – the upper house – to jointly select the prime minister in conjunction with the House of Representatives – the lower house – during the initial five years of the first government to be formed after the election.

All 250 senators will be selected by the NCPO and current Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha.

For the lower house, 10,792 MP candidates will contest in 350 constituencies and the other 150 members of the House of Representative will be elected from the national party lists under the system of proportional representation.

In previous elections, people would cast two votes: one for directly elected MPs, and one for party-list candidates.

The new constitution said the premier does not have to be an MP but must be one of the prime ministerial candidates listed by a political party. That party must own at least 25 MPs.

Thus, the nomination must then be endorsed by at least 50 elected MPs.

However, if none of the listed candidates can be appointed for any reason, at least half of the members of both Houses – 375 – can request the National Assembly to start a process that could allow an "outsider prime minister" who need not be a listed candidate previously known to voters.

Who's running and who's expected to win?

- Military on grip: Power of Prayut

The pro-military force supports Prayut's return to power. It is made up of newly formed parties and Prayut is contesting the poll with the Phalang Pracharat Party.

Prayut and his military government have fully prepared to ensure its premiership.

Phalang Pracharat party's candidate for prime minister, Prayut Chan-O-Cha, gestures during the party's final major campaign rally in Bangkok, Thailand, March 22, 2019. /VCG Photo

Opposition groups would need at least 376 seats in parliament to get their candidate elected. As senators appointed by the military are likely to back the military candidate, it means the opposition has to win all 376 seats from the lower house.

Hence, Prayuth is highly likely to remain in power, even if parties backing him don't do so well at the ballot box.

But it is likely Prayuth could face an embracing period with only minority backing in the lower house.

- Strong populists: Influence of Thaksin

One of the biggest parties in Thailand – Pheu Thai, which was formed by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his family – is the key member of the anti-military force.

The party has picked close Thaksin ally Sudarat Keyuraphan as its candidate since Thaksin and his younger sister Yingluck Shinawatra, who are currently in self-imposed exile, can't run for the election.

As the new constitution introduced a ceiling on how many seats each party can win, Pheu Thai has created smaller splinter parties to get around that.

Pheu Thai party's candidate for prime minister, Sudarat Keyuraphan, greets supporters during the party's final major campaign rally in Bangkok, Thailand, March 22, 2019. /Xinhua Photo

One such party was Thai Raksa Chart, which named the king's sister, Princess Ubolratana, as the party's candidate for prime minister.

However, the princess's political career only lasted three days since the Constitutional Court dissolved Thai Raksa Chart after the king's criticism.

Pro-Thaksin parties now have very little chance of winning an outright majority in the lower house, although Pheu Thai is still expected to be by some margin the largest party.

- Swing forces: Third option

The swing force consists of old parties that are yet to decide which camp they would join. This group may also wield some influence in the election's final outcome.

The Democrats, the oldest establishment party, are one of two parties fielding candidates in all 350 constituencies. Although they are clearly in the anti-Thaksin camp, the party also made it clear it will never join the pro-military camp.

Government security forces gather at the Narathiwat police headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, March 22, 2019. /VCG Photo

The Democrat party positions itself as "the third option," according to its secretary-general Juti Krairiksh.

He said, "We've prepared to claim victory. We've never considered ourselves a secondary party. So, if my party wins the majority vote, I'd rather ask ‘who wants to join me?'"

The other party is Future Forward. The newcomer is also opposed to the military and is thought to possibly back Pheu Thai.

No matter who wins, the country will likely remain in political crisis as none of these political forces would relax their grip.

Concerns on a rise over if street protests would bring violence again. Over the past decade, violent protests by the pro-Thaksin Red Shirts versus the pro-establishment Yellow Shirts have several times paralyzed Bangkok.

(Video by Shen Anqi)