Can Trump-Putin meeting change the standoff?

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Europe

Editor's note: Cui Zheng is an associate professor at Center for the Economies and Politics of Transitional Countries (RCEPTC) at Liaoning University in China. The article reflects the author’s opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

US President Donald Trump has nailed down the time for holding his first official meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 16.

The "sudden meeting," described by most people, has actually made its mark prior to June 12 when the historical handshake between Trump and DPRK leader Kim Jong Un happened.

It's not surprising that the location and the purpose of the meeting, what achievements to be reached, etc., would become the center of global attention.

The best location for the meeting

It is absolutely suitable to choose Helsinki, the capital of Finland, as the best location for the Trump-Putin meeting.

Since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, Russia and the US have experienced fierce conflicts in various fields, and bilateral relations have fallen toward the freezing point.

Choosing a third country to hold a meeting can balance political power and avoid giving either party an obvious home advantage.

Helsinki, the capital of Finland, is the best location for Trump-Putin meeting./ VCG Photo

Geographically, Helsinki has a moderate distance from the two countries. Before flying there, Trump is expected to participate in the NATO Summit held in Brussels on July 11 and 12, followed by his visit to the UK. For Putin, Moscow is only 900 kilometers away from Helsinki. The Russian President, who will attend the World Cup finals and closing ceremony, can quickly arrive there as well.

In terms of political stance, Finland is a member of the European Union rather than that of NATO. Although it converged with the Western world in terms of values and social systems, the country is neutral on almost all controversial issues between Russia and the West.

History has shown that Helsinki not only witnessed meetings between American and Russian leaders three times in 1975, 1990 and 1997, respectively, but the easing of the two countries' relations.

In addition, Sauli Niinistö, Finland's President, has established good personal relationships with both Putin and Trump. This can guarantee trust, for both sides, in terms of security.

June 28, 2018: President of the Republic of Finland Sauli Niinistö holds a press conference for the Putin-Trump meeting in Helsinki, Finland./ VCG Photo

Needs satisfied by the meeting

The US president, who aims to obtain political achievements diplomatically and actively gain advantages for the mid-term elections, has tasted the sweetness at the Trump-Kim Summit in Singapore.

For Trump, the first Summit of US-Russian leaders will be able to extent the results of the Singapore summit, and relieve the pressure of Trump's confrontation with the member countries at the G7 summit.

Since Putin began his new presidential term this May, Russia has actively carried out intensive diplomatic activities.

Currently, with the fact that the US and EU sanctions against Russia have not been lifted, and the United Kingdom advocating for the isolation of Russia, holding the World Cup successfully has greatly contributed to the national pride of the Russian people and the support of Putin.

The Trump-Putin Summit, which is expected to take place on the first day after the conclusion of the World Cup, is critical for Russia in terms of breaking international isolation, firmly establishing the image of Russia's major power and demonstrating diplomatic strength.

To put the global spotlight on Russia for more than a month is definitely a highlight of Putin’s new diplomatic achievements at the beginning of his new term.

US President Donald Trump said on June 21, 2018, that he is considering meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin and is sending his national security advisor to Moscow to discuss the idea./ VCG Photo

Standoff would still remain

The unpleasant ending between the US and the rest of the G7 members has led Trump to speed up the reparation of relations with Russia. The actions of Russia and the United States in Syria and the overall security situation in Europe will be the focus of the meeting between the two leaders.

The US has expressed that it welcomes the Russian Defense Ministry announcing that it would cut military power in Syria. It is possible to reduce or stop the joint military exercise between US and South Korea after the Trump-Putin Summit.

However, in view of the existence of the binding forces of the US' Republican establishment, the "peace agreement" between Russia and the US and the relaxation or cancellation of sanctions against Russia by the US will not occur.

While the domestic investigations into the Russia scandal continues, the US should keep a distance from Russia. The reason is that Russia, which is regarded as a strategic competitor by the United States, will greatly strengthen its strategy toward the US in geopolitical economy during the period when the Syrian war comes to an end and the US has announced its withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement.

Due to the serious divergences between Russia and the US, the meeting will hardly achieve any substantial breakthroughs.