The Kremlin's latest standoff with Ukraine in the Sea of Azov is invoking the European Union's (EU) concerns, promoting the possibility of even more stringent Western sanctions on Russia.

However, the lack of consensus within the EU over sanctions means that no further anti-Russian measures of any significance are to be expected in the near future. Considering the entire sanctions saga in total, the only time when relatively tough measures were imposed was in summer 2014 in the immediate aftermath of the MH17 disaster, which caused the deaths of a large number of EU citizens. This spurred the EU into collective action, but the deaths of thousands of Ukrainians have not had a similarly galvanizing effect.

As a result, the only countries that consistently push for tougher sanctions are those with a recent national memory of Russian aggression such as the Baltic countries, or countries that have been directly targeted by Putin in recent years such as the UK. 

Given the need for consensus within the EU, this is not nearly enough to initiate an escalation in sanctions already imposed on Russia, but it should prove sufficient to maintain unity within the EU in order to extend those limited sanctions that have already been imposed. 

There is little appetite among many EU member states for a full-blown diplomatic confrontation with Russia, while the notion of a military confrontation is considered completely absurd. The economic costs for EU members of tit-for-tat trade barriers with Russia are actually extremely low, but there are significant opportunity costs for big business and this makes sanctions politically toxic. 

However, the sanctions' effectiveness cannot be measured in terms of dollars and cents alone. The imposition of sanctions and the possibility of extending the already imposed sanctions have served to scare investors away from Russia while encouraging Russians themselves to take their money out of the country, leaving the Russian economy in a sluggish shape and denying the Kremlin the Foreign Direct Investment flows it needs in order to make the most of Russia's energy wealth. 

The big game-changing sanction options such as a cut-off from international banking systems like SWIFT remain on the table and have yet to be deployed. The impact of sanctions so far could be described as "considerably better than nothing." 

Ultimately, it can be said that sanctions have given the Kremlin cause to pause, but they have not been sufficient to provoke any serious changes in President Vladimir Putin's foreign policy. The biggest obstacle to further stop Russian moves is the Ukrainian army, which has reformed and improved beyond recognition since 2014 and now represents a fairly formidable barrier to any fresh Russian actions. 

For example, the Ukrainian armed forces has grown from 157,000 in 2014 to about 250,000 today. And the situation for the armed forces has also improved, receiving a total of 4,142 tanks and armored vehicles in 2014, 3,227 units in 2015 and 530 units in 2016. Overall, Ukraine has, in the past four years, managed to strengthen its defensive capabilities.

(Cover photo: A picture taken on December 2, 2018 shows a huge Soviet-era arch in Kiev, symbolizing Ukraine and Russia's friendship and union, where an unknown artist added a crack following recent tensions. /VCG Photo)