Editor's note: Chris Deacon is a postgraduate researcher in politics and international relations at the University of London and previously worked as an international commercial lawyer. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

As news broke on Thursday of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) launching further short-range missiles, Republic of Korea (ROK) President Moon Jae-in was shortly to appear for a lengthy interview with Korean television channel KBS.

Unsurprisingly, the topic of the launches was brought up quickly by his interlocutor. Moon stated that, while it was not always easy to understand Pyongyang's motives in regard to such actions, he believed that the DPRK had been aggravated by the behavior of the United States at the Hanoi summit, and was signaling its frustration with this and the stalling of talks since.

At the same time, however, Moon postulated that DPRK leader Kim Jong Un wished to keep the negotiation process going and, therefore, did not take even more provocative action.

Moon certainly still kept the door to further negotiations open. He encouraged Kim Jong Un to quickly resume denuclearization talks with the U.S.; however, it appears he is also growing increasingly concerned about his neighbor's behavior.

He acknowledged that the missiles launched, despite being short-range, would still be deemed to be unpleasant. The ROK government had been criticized by some regarding the previous DPRK launch as the former had seemed hesitant to use the word "missile" – so this was a clear change.

These developments come in the context of decreasing popular support in the ROK for Moon's DPRK policy, as well as a fall in his personal approval ratings. While many analysts are quick to caution that the latter relates more to domestic economic problems, the ROK president's inter-Korean policy has always been an important part of his platform.

ROK presidents are only able to serve for a single, five-year term. In this way, the country's leaders do not necessarily need to be concerned about their personal popularity for the purposes of future elections. That said, Moon will no doubt want his policy to be a success and, moreover, to be continued in some form by the next ROK president. This is most likely to happen if another progressive is elected.

The main opposition Liberty Korea Party (LKP) has been overtly critical of Moon's approach, and it seems highly unlikely that, were an LKP candidate to win the next presidential election, he or she would continue the peace process in its current form. On the contrary, they may well reverse the progress already made and set inter-Korean relations back to mutual antagonism.

Moon must, therefore, at least to some extent keep in mind how his DPRK policy is playing with the public and impacting on his – and his party's – popularity.

The problem, however, is that Moon is clearly desperate to make progress as soon as possible, and this desperation does not always make comfortable viewing. Moon's aims are, without doubt, noble, but he must be careful that the short-term desire to achieve his goals does not end up harming the likelihood of achieving them in the long term.

As is commonly the case with the DPRK, history appears to be repeating itself in many ways. Former ROK President Kim Dae-jung's "Sunshine Policy" of cooperation and reconciliation with the DPRK also dramatically fell in popularity with the ROK public because of how one-sided it became.

While Seoul continually provided "sunshine" to Pyongyang, it hardly received any back, and the ROK public quickly grew jaded with having to always play the jilted lover in the inter-Korean relationship.

The same is happening again now, as the DPRK, in recent months, has increased its disparaging remarks about the ROK and Moon's role as “middleman” between Kim and U.S. President Donald Trump.

The two sets of missile launches in the last week, just as the ROK seeks to provide food aid to the DPRK and Moon encourages others to do the same, have only added to this one-sided state of affairs.

There can be no doubt that peace on the Korean Peninsula is a good thing. There can also be no doubt that, no matter what happens, a true and long-lasting peace will only be achieved through talking with one another.

In this way, Moon is absolutely right to be pursuing the policy of engagement and cooperation that he is. But, at the same time, he must be sensitive to the politics of all this and keep his people on side.

This is certainly easier said than done. For a start, it depends a lot on the actions of other leaders – not just Kim Jong Un himself. Moon has to contend with keeping up the support of other regional actors, particularly the United States.

But Moon will have to include his own people in this list of necessary supporters too. Because ultimately, as in any democracy, his policy with the DPRK can only continue in the long term for as long as the ROK public supports it.

In considering his actions over the coming months, Moon must have regard to this reality, and check his short-term desperation if it might harm long-term goals.

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