“The Chinese RMB has depreciated against the dollar in the last few month[s]. I think it is largely a reflection of market fundamentals. It’s a standard economic theory. You can’t fight theory,” stated Fang Ji, the deputy secretary-general of the China Development Research Foundation.
Fang expressed his belief that the current weak Chinese RMB against the US dollar is actually caused by “the result of [the] current international trade system rather than a deliberate currency policy by any particular country.”
Fang pointed to the fact that the current US economy is “red hot,” with employment at historically high levels and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. This trend, as a normal fluctuation of the US economy, could be the reason why the RMB is depreciating against the dollar.
Regarding the ongoing China-US trade tensions, Fang said that the trade dispute could be blown out of proportion.
According to Fang, “50 billion [value of Chinese imports facing US tariffs] represents a small fraction of [the] total trade between China and the US.” Chinese businesses should be able to “absorb some of the cost of this increasing tariff by increasing efficiency,” he added.
As a heavyweight in his field, Fang’s insights certainly carry weight; William Zarit of the American Chamber in China, however, was more pessimistic.
Zarit said the ongoing trade dispute is creating major uncertainties for US firms. They are doing what they can to adapt to the current situation by modifying supply chains and communicating with governments on both sides.
Yet, the future is treacherous to navigate, as diversifying supply chains involves high costs for American businesses. “This first charge of 34 billion… is affecting [companies’] psychology, and they are concerned about what’s coming next. The 200 billion…I don’t know of any companies that will not be affected.”
Both experts agreed that the proposed list of tariffs on 200 billion US dollars’ worth of Chinese imports hurt sectors on both sides of the Pacific.
World Insight with Tian Wei is a 45-minutes global affairs and debate show on CGTN. It airs weekdays at 10:15 p.m. BJT (1415GMT) with rebroadcasts at 4:15 a.m. BJT (20:15GMT)