Brexit is rewriting UK party politics
Tom Fowdy
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Editor's note: Tom Fowdy, who graduated with an MSc in Chinese Studies from Oxford University and majored in politics at Durham University, writes on the international relations of China and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. The article reflects the author's views, and not necessarily those of CGTN.
As the crisis of Brexit rolls on in the United Kingdom with the country no further forwards on configuring a new proposal with its relationship with Europe, an incredible rupture is taking place in the country's party politics.
Several days ago, a number of Labour MPs broke away from their party in protest of its handling of the Brexit issue, titling themselves “the independent group”. Several days later, three Conservative MPs with similar sympathies joined them. For all they have pooled together from different sides of the House of Commons, they are united in their disdain of Britain's departure from the European Union.
Their goal is to advocate a second referendum, something neither major party has been willing to budge on, with the titular ambition of salvaging Britain's relationship with Europe once and for all. The shift is a yet another sign that the issue of Brexit: huge, controversial and deeply divisive, is redrawing the boundaries of British politics. Even if this group never finds its way in an election, it might gain the momentum to force pro-EU considerations back into the frontline of party politics.
British former Conservative Party MPs Joan Ryan, Heidi Allen, Anna Soubry and Sarah Wollaston arrive at a news conference in London, Britain, February 20, 2019. /VCG Photo

British former Conservative Party MPs Joan Ryan, Heidi Allen, Anna Soubry and Sarah Wollaston arrive at a news conference in London, Britain, February 20, 2019. /VCG Photo

How did such a movement emerge? Stating “Brexit” alone might be enough to make it clear. Those most passionately opposed to Britain's departure from Europe have struggled to find their voice in the frontline of politics.
Despite there being a sizeable number of “ardent remainers” both major parties: That is the Conservatives and Labour, have stayed true to the promise of pursuing Brexit in fear of upsetting enormous swathes of their own voters. For the Conservatives, largely bathed in the ideology of nationalism and Euroscepticism, this has only involved upsetting a minority of their supporters, whom have departed without inflicting serious damage on the party.
For Labour however, where their electorate has been more sharply divided between pro and anti-EU sentiments this has proven destructive. With many of the party's own constituencies in the North of England and Wales opting overwhelmingly for Brexit, the party has sought to repress calls for a second vote from groups of their MPs who are passionately opposed to it. This has been further complicated with Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell being lifelong left wing Eurosceptics, thus sympathetic to the cause. The result of it all has been a muddled compromise approach with Labour taking a disunified, lukewarm challenge to the government's policy and a refusal to scrap it altogether.
It hasn't gone down well. With both major parties colluding around some form of Brexit, those in each opposed it have decided that their voice will not be heard unless they take their own path. Thus was born, “the independent group”, characterized by pro-EU, centrist politicians disillusioned with the polarization of each respective party to the left and to the right. A recent poll found that if the new grouping was able to field a candidate in every constituency, it could gain up to 18 percent of the vote. This however, would com almost all from the Labour Party, splitting its support and allowing Theresa May to obtain a huge victory.
British Prime Minister Theresa May (L) is welcomed by President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker prior to a bilateral meeting on Brexit talks at the Berlaymont, the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, February 20, 2019. /VCG Photo

British Prime Minister Theresa May (L) is welcomed by President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker prior to a bilateral meeting on Brexit talks at the Berlaymont, the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, February 20, 2019. /VCG Photo

In that case, does this new group have any chance to succeed and stop Brexit? History is not kind to insurgent groups attempting to challenge the two-party status quo, the biggest obstacle is the very simple first past the post electoral system.
The psychology of this set-out inclines most voters towards thinking practically about the stakes of their vote, choosing realistically between one party or the other. In 2014-2015, Conservative politicians and voters defected to UKIP in a similar manner, the electoral system effectively put breaks on their advance as people felt the Conservatives were those who could deliver.
However, on that note despite UKIP's failure, the influence and change to which they brought about on British politics was divisive. In parallel reverse to the Independent Group, their rise was made possible because both political parties colluded around the center in being pro-Europe, creating political space for a movement to break in and force a change to the political paradigm.
Thus, although the independent group is unlikely to ever be electorally successful, it provides a voice to pro-europe voters and sentiments which were otherwise being ignored. If they can injure Labour enough (as UKIP did to the Conservatives) it may force the party to take anti-Brexit sentiment seriously and readjust its position. The conclusion? Movements like this are ultimately short lived, but their political legacies can be decisive. 
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