Iran nuclear deal: What now?

July 14 this year marks the third anniversary of the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), better known as the Iran nuclear deal.

The 2015 historical deal was "the most significant nonproliferation achievement since South Africa, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine decided to give up their nuclear weapons in the 1990s," says Oliver Meier, deputy head of International Security Division at German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

July 20, 2015 : The Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 223, following the historic agreement in Vienna on July 14 on a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) regarding Iran's nuclear program. /VCG Photo

However, the deal that was supposed to last for over a decade has run into serious obstacles after one of the signatories, the United States, pulled out of it in May, reinstating sanctions on Iran, and triggering wide-ranging doubts about its precarious fate.

The deal in a glance

Iran promised to significantly limit its nuclear activities by adopting a series of measures, including eliminating its stockpile of medium-enriched uranium, reducing its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98 percent, cutting the number of its centrifuges from 20,000 units to around 5,000, and allowing international inspectors in.

As a reward, the deal will produce "the comprehensive lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear program, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy."

July 14, 2015: Signed Contract of Comprehensive Plan Of Action with signatures of Foreign Minister of China, Wang Yi, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini, Foreign Minister of Iran, Mohammad Javad Zarif, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Wiktorowitsch Lawrow, British Foreign Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, Philip Hammond and US Secretary of State John Kerry, Vienna, Austria. /VCG Photo

Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Yukiya Amano confirmed that by May 9, 2018, Iran had complied with its nuclear-related commitments.

Deal in danger

While the world has praised the breakthrough made in the Iranian nuclear issue, the US under Donald Trump's presidency has been complaining about it. Trump slammed the agreement as "insane", threatened to withdraw it and finally did so in May this year.

The US also immediately slapped sanctions on Iran, which will take effect in August and November.

US President Donald Trump holds up a memorandum that reinstates sanctions on Iran after he announced his decision to withdraw the United States from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal in the Diplomatic Room at the White House in Washington, DC, the US, May 5, 2018. /VCG Photo

Under the sanctions, firms and other entities are forbidden to trade with Iran, particularly in the petroleum sector.

Opinion: What does Trump want from sanctions on Iran?‍

The unilateral move by the US has incurred criticism from multiple sides, even from within the country.

Stephen Zunes, professor of Politics and International Studies at the University of San Francisco, squarely pointed out that this action, among others by the Trump administration, has made the United States "a kind of rogue nation."

Inside Iran, the US withdrawal has been met with strong sentiment. As Mohammad Marandi, political analyst and expert on American studies at the University of Tehran put it: "Iranians see this as evidence that the US cannot be trusted at all. They also see the sanctions as a barbaric attempt to make ordinary Iranians suffer as much as possible."

Iranians burn US flags and makeshift Israeli flags during an anti-US demonstration outside the former US embassy headquarters in the capital Tehran, May 9, 2018. /VCG Photo

In the meantime, Tehran has threatened to restart its nuclear program on an "industrial scale" as a countermeasure.

The remaining signatories, namely, the three EU members France, Germany and Britain, plus Russia and China, have, in recent months, maintained close coordination and pledged to keep the deal alive, as its collapse would risk throwing the whole world into upheaval.

Possible futures for the deal

Can Iran eventually exit the deal? The experts CGTN Digital interviewed seem to be split on the issue.

Some believe that there is a bigger chance Iran will stay in.

"It will depend on the results of current negotiations between Iran and the 4+1. If 4+1 economic package safeguards the continuation of Iran's relatively normal economic relations with the world, Iran is likely to remain in the JCPOA," according to Dr. Mohsen Shariatinia, assistant professor of International Relations at Tehran's Shahid Beheshti University.

Iranian dealers monitor the stock market at the stock exchange in the capital Tehran, May 8, 2018. /VCG Photo

Wang Jin, research fellow at the Institute of Middle East Studies at China's Northwest University noted that economy is Iran's top priority.

"It is still early to judge whether Iran will withdraw from the nuclear deal," the Chinese researcher added, "Iran needs to face its reality, its economic situation and social hardship."

However, in Zunes' eyes, Washington's withdrawal is now considered a victory for Iranian hardliners, who opposed the agreement in the first place, arguing that the United States could not be trusted to lift the sanctions as promised.

"That, in the end, is exactly what happened, so it is possible Iran could indeed withdraw from the deal as well," said the American academic.

Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif (2nd R), Britain's Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson (R), France's Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian (C), Germany Foreign Minister Heiko Maas (2nd R) -- the ministers of the three European signatories to the 2015 nuclear deal - and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Federica Mogherini (L) pose before a meeting of EU/E3 and EU/E3 with Iran at the EU headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, May 15, 2018. /VCG Photo

The remaining deal signatories, particularly the E3/EU, have been playing a key role in salvaging the agreement. As early as May, the EU launched an economic plan to address nine key financial areas, including maintaining economic ties with Iran, guaranteeing Iran's ability to sell oil and gas products and protecting EU companies doing business in Iran.

But German expert Oliver Meier worries that "at the end of the day, every company has to weigh the risks and gains of staying engaged with Iran, while the United States enforces secondary sanctions."

So will Iran take a third path, surrendering to US pressure and start the renegotiation that Trump has been asking for?

Not sure, but at least it doesn't seem likely to Marandi.

"I do not see any possibility that the Iranians will renegotiate the deal, because appeasement does not work."