Ban Ki-moon will end his term as Secretary-General of the United Nations on December 31. He has been serving as the UN Chief for 10 years. The career diplomat with a global reputation has emerged as the most popular presidential candidate in South Korea. He has openly expressed aspirations to contribute more for his homeland in the years to come. 

South Korea has recently been gripped by its most severe political turmoil in decades as an influence-peddling scandal may lead President Park Geun-hye to step down from her presidency in near future. Large crowds have gathered in Seoul to demand Park’s resignation.

Indeed, the crisis of democracy in South Korea is also consequential in terms of regional peace and security. As US President-elect Donald Trump now prepares to transition into the White House, observers in Washington and Seoul are wary of a possibility that Pyongyang will take more provocative measures, such as launching nuclear and missile tests. 

According to the latest survey conducted by Realmeter, a local pollster in South Korea, Ban is now experiencing his highest popularity among presidential candidates. As another front-runner, Moon Jae-in, who served as the opposition leader of the Minjoo Party of Korea, has a wealth of experience in Korean domestic politics. Moon was also a key player in the Sunshine Policy toward North Korea of the progressive Roh Moo-hyun administration.

Though Ban came to prominence as a seasoned diplomat dealing with international issues, he may be not experienced in tackling internal affairs. As political rifts are proliferating, South Korea faces more economic difficulties ahead. News of redundancies by Samsung and Hyundai among other big companies has sent tremors though the country. 

In light of these internal challenges in South Korea, a new president with extraordinary political savvy and skill is needed to stabilize the situation. Obviously, Ban Ki-moon has been away from domestic politics for a long time. 

Moreover, the popular vote is crucial in South Korea’s presidential election. As a modest diplomat, Ban is not expected to be good at making demagogic schemes that appeal to people’s emotions. In comparison, Lee Jae-myung, who is mayor of a city near Seoul, is rising in opinion polls regarding the presidential election. Lee is viewed as “Korea’s Trump” amid the polarized political scene, and he could win more support with anti-establishment voters that favor a maverick outsider.

The Saenuri Party, now the ruling conservative party in South Korea, has hinted its support for Ban Ki-moon. However, it is rumored that Ban considers forming a new political party to enter into the election. History in South Korea suggests it may be premature and risky to take such approach in battling over presidency. 

Victor Cha, professor at Georgetown University and former White House senior official, said Ban could be a “unifying figure in Korean politics”. However, Ban must face up to a daunting test by diving into the tangled web of Korean politics.

Even if Ban is not successful in winning the presidency, he could have a crucial role to play in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue. A meeting was held between Ban and Donald Trump, and it touched upon the prospect of a US-ROK alliance. Beijing also has some confidence in Ban and regards him as a potentially key interlocutor.

(Dr. Zhao Minghao is a Research Fellow at the China Center for Contemporary World Studies and a member of China National Committee, Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific (CSCAP).)