Of all the major countries, Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime minister, is undoubtedly the leader most anxious to flatter US President Donald Trump. The prime objective of his US visit is to seek American assurances over the US-Japan security alliance. In order to cater to Trump’s appetite and rhetoric of "America first", Abe will try his best to present as many economic gifts to the president as possible. 

Abe will propose multi-billion plans supporting American infrastructure investment, and major manufacturing investment projects in America.

However, Donald Trump will not give Japan any reciprocal benefits in return. Instead, he will demand yen appreciation, raising the value of the Japanese currency, to erode any possible Japanese export competitive advantages, and demand more access for the US automotive industry to Japan. 

The US has been a net loser in the automotive trade with Japan for decades. In 2016, imports of US transportation equipment from Japan hit 59.2 billion US dollars, while exports to Japan were 9.87 billion US dollars, or to put it another way, just one sixth of the former. 

In the early 1980s, the Reagan administration successfully forced Japan to a “voluntary export control” of its auto exports to the US, which resulted in Japanese auto makers investing heavily in the US. 

Twenty years later, Toyota outstripped GM as the number-one auto sales brand in North America. It remains to be seen how Donald Trump will force Japan to import more American automobiles, no matter how poor their quality or competitiveness compared to other brands. 

Japan will certainly be a loser on trade issues, no matter how abundant the "gifts" that Abe presents to Donald Trump during the state visit. Trump’s slogan is "America first". The Japanese interests are not important.

(He Weiwen is a senior fellow with the Center for China and Globalization (CCG). The article reflects the author's opinion, not necessarily the view of CGTN.)