Global Future with James Chau: Christine Lagarde interview
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Global future is including women wherever, in whatever circumstances, at least on a par with men. Global future is educating girls so that they can themselves contribute to the economy, but also have a say in their personal destiny and where the world is going. Global future is thinking about the youth and the next generation, and making sure that we hand over to them a future that is better than what ours was.
More than 70 years ago, when the Second World War was still raging, a group of global architects sat down to redraw the rules for the United States, Western Europe Canada, Australia and Japan.  As part of that, the Bretton Woods system gave birth to the International Monetary Fund and more deeply a financial order that has remained in place ever since. But, today, a lot is changing – Brexit, a new administration in Washington and the economic and political emergence of countries that weren't the decision makers all those years ago. I'm James Chau with Global Future – a special series of conversations with thought leaders who are shaping our choices, and providing a sense of how we can anticipate the changes ahead. Through this week, I'll bring you to meet Jimmy Carter, Alicia Garza and Arianna Huffington – but we head first to Washington and Christine Lagarde, who for the last seven years, has headed the International Monetary Fund.
JC = JAMES CHAU
CL = CHRISTINE LAGARDE
JC: Christina Lagarde, thank you very much for having us here at the IMF. Your years of leadership have given you real insights into the changes in a rapidly transformative world. If you look into the future, what are some of the trends that you predict for us?
CL: Well I would say that international trade, digitalization, continued multilateralism should be our future aspirations. I'm not certain that it will happen, but certainly from my perspective that's where we should focus our effort. And all of that with a goal to, number one, improving the wellbeing of populations, helping low income countries converge towards better levels of development, and in all countries eradicate poverty.
JC: The IMF is built on economic cooperation. Are you able to take on an even more expanded role at a time when many European countries are seeing a rise in inward thinking and even nationalism?
CL: I think that our duty as an international institution, whose mission is stability, prosperity in a multilateral dialogue. It is to really break down the messages so that it resonates at the national level with each and every individual. So while we have to look at global economy, while we have to focus on micro critical issues, and while we know that macro critical frameworks are important and are at the heart of our mission, we have to distill it to the level of the individuals directly, so that we can better explain why trade is going to be beneficial, why respecting other countries' rights and privileges is important, why investing in health and education is vital for the future. So that's an effort we have to undertake ourselves in order to convince the international community, break down at the individual level, that all of that matters. And yet that their respect of environment, speaking about culture, about language, about civilization, about history, it's also protected in that global world affairs.
JC: In your various roles, not only as the head of IMF, but also as a mother, as your own person, what's one crisis we should be all aware of and what's one of opportunity that perhaps we could prepare for?
CL: Let me first of all take the opportunity. I believe that this fourth industrial revolution talked about, which combines many innovations which combined together a really transforming the world place, the relationships, the education, the economy at large. That fourth industrial revolution is and can be an extraordinary opportunity, if we prepare for it, if we adjust our brain, our ability to grasp change of the goals of the near future. I think the changes will take place in the medium term. We've already seen some changes, but we need to change fast. It is our ability to learn, our ability to adjust, our ability to adapt to those changes, that's a huge opportunity. If we don't do that, it might turn into a curse rather than a blessing.
JC: The IMF has been a real champion for poverty elimination over many decades, very much like in China. And now President Xi Jinping wants to turn off that tap on poverty for good by 2020. You know the complexity. You know the situation in Washington, not just in developing economies. There is urban poverty as well. If he were sitting with you right now, as he often has been, what would you tell him about shutting that tap off for good?
CL: I would say that all tools have to be used. And clearly in the hands of any government, you find the fiscal tool. In the hands of central banks, you find the monetary policy tools, and in the hands of government, the structural reforms. I would venture to say that the Chinese authorities and governments have probably even stronger ability to implement throughout the country however big it is. But the tools to be used, clearly fiscal, public spending in the right areas, guaranteeing a social safety net to people, making sure that they are, that they have access to health services, to education, for those people who work, that they will be eligible to some pension when they retire. For all of that, the governments can use a combination of fiscal spending, but also regulatory changes, that will require, for instance, the corporations, whether they're state or private, actually account for pension retirement for their work force, and that minimum standards of health be made affordable for people. So I think that the tools are there, and as China is continuing to grow and the sun is shining over the country, it's really time to adjust and fix that beautiful Chinese roof with all the components, so that people are out of poverty. But China is probably the most experienced country in the world to reduce poverty. It has reduced hundreds of millions of poverty, hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, over the course of the last forty years. And yes, there is still some. And I really applaud President Xi for targeting those last 50 million as those who have to be taken out of poverty.
JC: There is the President and China, and the Belt and Road Initiative which promises inclusive growth for everybody, but when you look at the details because you know the details, does the vision actually much the policies, the hardware behind it?
CL: You know that's where I think the vision and the dream should meet and should deliver some real realizations. I think the vision is fascinating. The project is clearly embracing. There are many followers and many countries that have agreed to join and be part of the project. I think it is still probably a bit short on the deliverable side. And certainly, it is supported by policy, by frameworks, by not just the ambition to invest in particular countries, but the ambition to structure also in those countries, sustainable growth, and to deliver on this inclusiveness that it has been identified.
JC: You've made many bold decisions. One of them which stands out is the inclusion of RMB in the selective basket of global currency. I just want to know when you look back on that decision do you think that you jumped the gun?
CL: No, I think that when the board of the IMF agreed to include RMB in the basket of currencies that determine the value of special drawing right, which is our IMF currency, it was the right decision. It was the right decision because it was a decision reached according to very precise criteria, based on an evolution that the Chinese authorities will be willing to undertake, and actually undertook diligently. Our cooperation was excellent during those months of progress, of opening up, of making that inclusion actually practically possible. And I think it was a signal by two accounts. One, it was a signal of no return. Once a currency is in the international basket of very selective currencies that are reputed to be international currencies, you don't go back. You are part of that very small club. And second, it is also a signal that international transactions and international financial flows will more and more include the renminbi as an international currency. There will be ups and downs along the way, but medium long term, I have no doubt that it will be and will continue to be a very strong international currency.
JC: Clearly you believe in engaging your countries, one of them being China in the spirit of globalization which is under threat today. With all that in mind, what kind of leader would you like him to be in his next five years in office?
CL: If I look at China, one of our members and of growing size, I would hope that it continues to focus on quality growth, not quantity. You know having high targets to set an incentive for provincial governors or local authorities to operate in a particular way. I don't think it's the most appropriate tool. I think focusing on quality growth is important. Second, focusing on that social safety net that we discussed earlier is also going to matter. Third, continuing the reforms that he has started in order to raise consumption, in order to move gradually from investment to consumption, to move towards more services as well, will be critically important. And I hope that China plays a leading role, but with that leading role, there will be responsibilities. And responsibilities will mean to play by the rules, to be a member of the club, to set standards for others, to be a peace agent and a stability agent for the world. And those are big heavy duty responsibilities to endorse.
JC: You are the mother of two children as we said, and when you look at the youth today.
CL: I think they are 'children'; they think they're grown-ups.
JC: Do they? How old are they now?
CL: Thirty-one and twenty-nine, but they're still my children.
JC: Still babies, aren't they?
CL: Yes…
JC: What do you think about them? Your children in their early thirties, they are part of a band of disappointed, increasingly disappointed youth, who sometimes say that they have not been allowed to participate in the mainstream economy no matter how well educated they are. Protest demonstrations, unemployment figures point to that. What do you say to young people? What can you promise them?
CL: I will take the example of my two sons. They are not negative. They're not pessimistic about the future. They want to embrace. They want to be part of it. Clearly they are privileged because they grew up in an advanced economy, and they had the benefit of that environment. But one of them has decided to take his destiny into his own hands and to actually set up a very small business, which is growing nicely because he is working hard. He has started a small restaurant with very little to start with. And he is working hard in developing his activities and employing now a couple of people. And the other one is still studying and paying for part of his studies. And he is studying in architecture in outer space. He thinks that one day we will all live in space and he is determined to help us to do that. So he believes in the future, the future that I don't always understand because I don't living in space is not really something I look forward to. By using those two examples, I think that we need to encourage young people to seize the opportunities wherever they are and in whatever circumstances, number one. Number two, they need to look at areas where the barrier to entry is not too high, where with enthusiasm and some education they can actually be ahead of the curve. That's where I think that this digitalization we're seeing, the fourth industrialization that has made it quicker and shorter, can actually deliver a lot for young people. It's easy to say for advanced economies, for emerging market economies, and for people who are not poor, it's much easier, which is why I think we all have a responsibility to help low income countries to go up the development chain, and poor people to have access to food, health and education.
JC: My last question comes back to the root of you. I heard that in your previous careers of a politician, you used to bring a piece of paper in your pocket with a list of names so that when CEO or chairman say well I do want to hire women leadership roles but don't know any, then you produced that paper out of your pocket. Do you still keep this list of names? Has anything changed?
CL: Things have changed a little bit, but they need to continue changing a big way. So I see more women in leadership, but I also see massive discrimination and lack of access to education in many of the low income countries and emerging markets that I know of. So I will continue to fight for equal opportunities for women for closing the gender gap and making sure that women have access to where they can deliver on their talent which is huge. I see from a different perspective. I don't advise CEOs any more, but I certainly advise policy makers and there are certainly multiple policy tools that can be used to encourage women to participate in the economy, to contribute where they can. So whenever I'm told oh no, no, no - women can't do that, I say you bet they can do it, just help them and they will deliver.
JC: Christina Lagarde, it has been a great honor to speak with you today.
CL: Thank you.