China Growth: Economist: Stable growth expected in 2018
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Will China continue its strong economic growth with quality being the biggest focus? And where will China-US trade relations travel in 2018? We sat down with Chief Economist Ding Shuang from Standard Chartered for his insights.
CHINA ECONOMY OUTLOOK "Favorable external environment fuels reforms."
WANG LIHUAN "It seems that 2018 is off to a good start, early indicators suggest so. So what's in store for this year?"
DING SHUANG, CHIEF ECONOMIST GREATER CHINA AND NORTH ASIA, STANDARD CHARTERED "For 2018 we expect further improvement of global economy, for the global economic growth, we forecast 3.9 percent up from 3.7 percent in 2017. Favorable external environment created room for China to pursue deleveraging, to push ahead with reforms. So we think this is a year when China will put the quality of growth ahead of the speed. We forecast 6.5 percent growth for China, down from the estimated 6.8 percent in 2017."
WANG LIHUAN "What is the biggest frontline for Chinese economy in 2018?"
DING SHUANG, CHIEF ECONOMIST GREATER CHINA AND NORTH ASIA, STANDARD CHARTERED "I would say property market still is. The government will continue to keep the tight measures in the short run, because if we look at 2017, even with restrictions on sales, on purchases, on price and on lending, we still see the price continue to rise, although at a slower pace. So I do not see any room to loosen the property policies. So that could put downside risks to China's fix asset investment and the GDP growth in general."
WANG LIHUAN "Beijing wants to continue to reduce the reliance on debt and also wants to cut money supply as well. Do you think everyone will be on board with that, especially all local governments?"
DING SHUANG, CHIEF ECONOMIST GREATER CHINA AND NORTH ASIA, STANDARD CHARTERED "If we look at the ministry of finance, actually after 2015, a lot of measures have been introduced to keep the local debt controlled. So actually I see very significant progress. All the debts issued by local governments will be in the form of bonds. And the ministry of finance has been very persistent in controlling other forms of increased debt, including through the form of PPP, the public-private-partnership, through the government purchase services, through the use of government development fund. So I think because the government is so concerned about the local government debt, I do not see the debt be a major problem. As a matter of fact, our estimate show the total government debt to GDP ratio has already declined in 2017."
WANG LIHUAN "So in your opinion, that is not going to be the so called grey rhino as everyone is talking about. So what is the grey rhino threat?"
DING SHUANG, CHIEF ECONOMIST GREATER CHINA AND NORTH ASIA, STANDARD CHARTERED "In 2018, most likely in my view is actually the trade friction with the US. I think people underestimated the possibility because things went very well in 2017. President stopped labelling China as the currency manipulator and there haven't been a load of trade sanctions on China. So I think the chance is rising increasingly in 2018. Recently the national security strategy adopted by the Trump administration again defined China as a US rival engaging in economic aggression to weaken the US influence. And there are a couple of investigations under way that could lead to increase of tariff on China's goods. So I think the risk is rising, especially in Trump's words, he didn't get what he expected from China, in terms of the Korean peninsula."