What happens next in Venezuela after the controversial vote?
POLITICS
By Wang Lei

2017-07-31 22:53 GMT+8

14425km to Beijing

Though it is too early to tell where Venezuela goes after President Nicolas Maduro claimed victory in a controversial election for the National Constituent Assembly, one thing is clear: The escalated controversy and standoff in the South American country since March will not end with Sunday's vote.

With a turnout of 41.5 percent according to the National Electoral Council – but only 12 percent claimed by the opposition, which boycotted the election – allies of the ruling Socialist Party won all 545 seats in the new assembly, which will be empowered to dissolve the opposition-controlled National Assembly, the country's existing legislature, and rewrite the constitution.

Supporters of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro hold up pictures of Venezuela's late president Hugo Chavez during an event in favor of the Constituent Assembly election outside Venezuela's embassy in Mexico City, Mexico, July 30, 2017. /Reuters Photo

Maduro encouraged the new assembly to scrap opposition lawmakers' immunity, whereas the opposition vowed to stage more protests.

More violence?

At least 10 people were killed in violence around the vote on Sunday, bringing the death toll in four months of protests to more than 120.

Those killed included a candidate for the Constituent Assembly, a regional opposition leader, two teenage protesters and a soldier.

As the opposition refuses to recognize the election and prepares for new protests, its confrontation with the government and government supporters could intensify.

Senior opposition leader Henrique Capriles called on Venezuelans to continue defying Maduro with new protests against the election and the "massacre" he said accompanied it.

"We do not recognize this fraudulent process," he said. "For us it is null, it doesn't exist and we are going to continue fighting until they re-establish constitutional order and democracy, and for Venezuelans to be able to fully exercise our rights. Let this be clear to the government."

Capriles called for nationwide marches Monday and a mass protest in Caracas Wednesday, the day the new assembly is due to be set up.

Meanwhile, Maduro has banned protests over the vote, threatening prison terms of up to 10 years.

It remains to be seen whether the Constituent Assembly will bring peace and dialogue promised by Maduro or continued chaos and violence.

Demonstrators run as clashes broke out while the Constituent Assembly election is being carried out in Caracas, Venezuela, July 30, 2017. /Reuters Photo

Harsher sanctions?

Last week, the US imposed sanctions on 13 senior officials of the Venezuelan government, sparing the country's crucial oil industry for the time being, but US President Donald Trump vowed "strong and swift economic actions" if Maduro went ahead with the Constituent Assembly election.

It is expected that Washington would impose broader and harsher sanctions on Venezuela after Sunday's vote, which was denounced as a "sham election" by Nikki Haley, the American ambassador to the United Nations. 

Citing US officials, a Reuters story said the new measures will include sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector, which could further cripple the Venezuelan economy.

Venezuela's economic crisis. /CGTN Graphic

With oil export as its lifeline, Venezuela, once the richest country in Latin America, has been plagued by a devastating economic crisis in recent years. Its gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 18 percent in 2016 and will plunge 12 percent this year, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The country also has the world's worst inflation at more than 700 percent.

Dire economic situations have fueled the ongoing social unrest and political turmoil to a great extent.

It is unclear whether the US, the biggest customer for Venezuela's oil, will ban exports to Venezuela of lighter US crude that the South American country uses to dilute its heavy crude in processing it for export, a US official told Reuters.

Whatever they are, US sanctions on the Venezuelan oil industry could have a devastating impact on the country's economic and social stability.

Security forces members face off against demonstrators in Caracas, Venezuela, July 30, 2017. /Reuters Photo

A wild card?

What will the Constitute Assembly do once the elected members are sworn in on Wednesday? The ruling Socialist Party vowed that it will begin passing laws quickly.

"The constituent assembly will start its work right away," Diosdado Cabello, deputy head of the Socialist Party, told a post-election rally in Caracas.

In his speech on Monday, Maduro encouraged the new assembly to scrap the constitutional immunity of opposition lawmakers, who controlled the National Assembly after an election victory in December 2015.

That could be done by rewriting the constitution, but details of the powerful new assembly are still unknown.

Moreover, whether the latest development will lead to a delay of this year's state elections and next year's presidential election is also unknown.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro (C) celebrates the results of the Constituent Assembly election in Caracas, Venezuela, July 31, 2017. /AFP Photo

The new legislative body is so powerful that The Washington Post's Amanda Erickson said it could be a "wild card."

"It will have so much power that it could do anything. It could even remove Maduro from office," Erickson wrote on Saturday.

"It's a crapshoot, a Pandora's box," Alejandro Velasco, a Venezuelan historian at New York University, told The New York Times. "You do this, and you have so little control over how it plays out."

Venezuela's timeline

March 5, 2013: Maduro becomes interim president of Venezuela as President Hugo Chavez dies

April 14, 2013: Maduro is elected president of Venezuela by a slim majority

February-May 2014: Protests against shortages and insecurity break out, leading to 43 deaths

December 2015: Opposition Democratic Unity coalition wins two-thirds majority in National Assembly elections, ending 16 years of Socialist Party control

February 2016: Maduro announces measures aimed at fighting economic crisis, including currency devaluation and first petrol price rise in 20 years

March 29, 2017: The Supreme Tribunal of Justice takes over legislative powers of the National Assembly

April 1, 2017: The Supreme Tribunal of Justice reverses its decision, reinstating legislative powers of the National Assembly

March-July, 2017: Four months of protests result in at least 120 deaths

July 30, 2017: Allies of Maduro win the election of a Constitute Assembly, which is boycotted by the opposition

14425km

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