Turkey's Olive Branch military operation in Syria's Afrin region could soon take a dangerous turn. The operation is targeting a Kurdish militant group YPG – deemed a terrorist organization by Turkey. But it could also trigger a major standoff between Turkey and the United States. CGTN's Michal Bardavid explains why.
On January 20th, the Turkish military launched a cross-border operation in Syria aiming to clear regions close to the Turkish border of the Syrian Kurdish group YPG, known as the People's Protection Units. Turkey believes the YPG is a security threat and does not want an autonomous Kurdish state formed along its border. Ankara says the YPG is a terrorist organization due to its affiliation with the PKK – Kurdistan Workers Party. The US, Turkey and the EU classify the PKK as a terrorist organization. The YPG rejects these claims.
But for Ankara, the battle will go on. President Erdogan has repeatedly stated Turkey will extend the military operation and move on to Manbij region. That's where the operation becomes more sensitive.
There are about 2,000 US troops stationed in Manbij where the militant group YPG is located. The US calls the group an ally and has been training and arming the YPG in the fight against ISIL .
Last weekend, US Central Command Chief Joseph Votel stated the US was not considering withdrawing its troops from the area. Meanwhile, Erdogan has stated Turkey will move forward despite the US presence.
RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN TURKISH PRESIDENT "It is up to those in the area whether to evacuate the places where terrorists are present or not. As we have openly declared, without playing any games, we will continue to clamp down on terrorists regardless of whom they are accompanied by."
MICHAL BARDAVID ISTANBUL "If Turkish and American troops do come face to face – it would undoubtedly create a dangerous and politically risky situation for the two allies. Yet, some analysts emphasize that if a confrontation were to happen –international bodies would intervene and prevent clashes."
ILTER TURAN, PRESIDENT INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION "I believe that if such a situation occurred, NATO would interfere and try to find a solution. And in finding a solution, the United States would be forced to take a step back."
There may be other solutions.
ILTER TURAN INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION PRESIDENT "Maybe the YPG can be convinced to withdraw from that area, or the United States can agree to pull its troops into a certain part of the region. These are all possibilities."
Since 2017, Turkey-US relations have soured after the US refused to extradite Muslim-cleric Fethullah Gulen who Ankara believes is behind the failed coup of 2016 as well as Turkey arresting two US consulate employees over terror charges and the US arming of YPG militants. A potential standoff in Manbij would certainly make it more difficult to mend ties for the two NATO allies. Michal Bardavid, Istanbul.