Chinese Forex: Yuan up 3 percent since January
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Turning to the currency market now. The People's Bank of China set the yuan midpoint against the dollar at 6.3019 on Monday, 134 basis points weaker than the number recorded last Friday. Despite the slight weakening, the value of the yuan has rocketed about 3 percent in just the first month of 2018. Chen Tong takes a closer look.
After a volatile performance in the second half of 2017, the value of the Renminbi against the dollar picked up at the beginning of the year and breached the key 6.3 level to reach a 2-and-a-half-year high last week. Experts say the run stems from China's positive economic performance and more siginificantly, the weakening of the US dollar. The US dollar index has declined by 2.8 percent since the beginning of this year.
LIU JIAN, SENIOR RESEARCHER BANK OF COMMUNICATIONS "Because of the economic recovery in the Euro zone, the Euro has appreciated against the dollar. Euro accounts for 57.6 percent of the US dollar index, so it's the appreciating Euro that has caused dollar to decline. Secondly, China's economic fundamentals are better than expected. Recent economic data including the PMI have all showed strong performance. The third factor is related to Renminbi trade. Traders prefer to buy a rising Renminbi rather than a declining one, and that has pushed the Renminbi's value up further."
The value of both the onshore and the offshore Renminbi have both reached their highest level against the dollar since China's exchange rate reform in 2015. Experts point out, however, that the Renminbi's recent performance has been so strong that we are likely to see a correction in the following months.
LI LIUYANG, CHIEF ANALYST CHINA MERCHANTS BANK "In the future, we think because of the financial market is a two-way volatility, not one way, so we can see some chances for the dollar rebounding in the next one or two months. So I think the appreciation speed for Renminbi will be slowly in the next two months."
Both the onshore and the offshore Renminbi saw slight corrections today, ending last week's strong performance.