What next? Tight race in scandal-hit Alabama election

World
Europe

A special Senate election in Alabama dominated by scandals and Republican Party infighting reaches a climax on December 12 with a vote that is unlikely to be the end of the story.

Republican candidate Roy Moore has lost a significant lead over Democratic rival Doug Jones since accusations of sexual misconduct against teenagers on November 9, and the average of polls suggests the race is neck-and-neck.

Democratic Alabama US Senate candidate Doug Jones speaks to his supporters during a rally in Birmingham, Alabama, US on December 11, 2017. /Reuters Photo

However, the spread between different pollsters is wide – who will vote is the central question.

Will mainstream Republicans put off by Moore vote for a Democrat in a traditionally red state? Will African-American voters come out in sufficiently large numbers for Jones?

Whichever candidate wins the state election, the repercussions are likely to be felt across the US.

If Moore wins…

… there is a possibility that Moore’s new Senate colleagues deem him unsuitable and attempt to expel him.

The chances of expulsion declined as election day neared and President Donald Trump publically endorsed Moore, but much of the Republican establishment is against the former judge and an inquiry into his past conduct is expected.

Republican candidate for US Senate Judge Roy Moore speaks during a campaign rally in Midland City, Alabama, US on December 11, 2017. /Reuters Photo

The 70-year-old was a divisive figure even before he was accused of sexual misconduct against teenage girls. He was twice removed from the state Supreme Court for refusing to abide by federal law, has praised the period in which slavery existed in the US as a time “families were strong”, and has said both that homosexuality should be illegal and Muslims should be barred from serving in Congress.

If Moore does take his seat, he’s unlikely to be a reliable ally of the establishment – he has attacked Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell repeatedly on the campaign trail.

Republican candidate for US Senate Judge Roy Moore (R) and former White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon in Fairhope, Alabama, US on December 5, 2017. /Reuters Photo

A Moore victory would be a big boost for Steve Bannon, the former Trump adviser who has declared a “season of war” against the Republican establishment and strongly supported Moore.

The Republican brand would also take a hit, particularly with the younger voters it is already struggling to attract. Moore’s face would doubtless feature heavily in Democratic campaigns in the 2018 midterm elections.

If Jones wins…

… the Republican majority in the Senate would be cut to 51-49, the same margin by which the tax bill was passed earlier in December. The final version of the tax bill is yet to be passed – a Jones victory could mean a tie, leaving Vice President Mike Pence to cast a deciding vote.

Democratic Alabama US Senate candidate Doug Jones comes onto the stage along with his wife Louise at a rally at Old Car Heaven in Birmingham, Alabama, US on December 11, 2017. /Reuters Photo

The 63-year-old was unfancied in the heavily Republican state until the accusations against Moore emerged. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in Alabama by 28 points in the 2016 presidential election.

Jones now has an opportunity to be the first Democrat elected to the Senate in Alabama for three decades. He is best known for prosecuting former Ku Klux Klan members responsible in 1963 for bombing a black church in Alabama in which four girls were killed.

As Trump has been keen to point out ahead of the election, a victory for Jones could have serious repercussions for the president’s agenda. A Jones win would also give the Democrats renewed momentum ahead of the 2018 midterm elections.

11658km