Kyrgyzstan votes: An uncertain Central Asia election

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Kyrgyzstan goes to the polls on Sunday in an unusually competitive Central Asian election, with the race between two main contenders too close to call.

Former prime minister Sooronbai Jeenbekov and wealthy businessman Omurbek Babanov are leading a field of 11 candidates as President Almazbek Atambayev comes to the end of his six-year term.

The vote on October 15 is the former Soviet republic's second presidential election since a revolution in 2010, and will, if all goes smoothly, mark the first democratic and peaceful transition of power in Central Asia.

The composite file photo of Sooronbai Jeenbekov (L) and Omurbek Babanov, the front-runners in the Kyrgyz presidential election / RFE Photo

Succession of leadership changes

Five Central Asian former Soviet republics achieved independence in 1991, but Kyrgyzstan is the only one to undergo a succession of leadership changes.

Askar Akayev was removed as leader in the 2005 "tulip revolution," and his successor Kurmanbek Bakiyev's government fell in 2010 following violent opposition protests.

After a tumultuous opening to the 21st century, greater stability has been evident under the presidency of Almazbek Atambayev.

However, the possibility of disorder in the run-up to Sunday's election has loomed large. Atambayev cancelled a visit to Russia this week, citing a threat of riots, and accusations of corruption, coups and bribery have been frequent on the campaign trail.

Around 9,000 police officers were on the streets on Sunday, according to the country's Interior Ministry.

Kyrgyzstan under Atambayev

Atambayev won election in 2011 under new rules which mandated only a single six-year term. He built coalitions with the country, working with other parties to sustain stability.

Under his rule, Kyrgyzstan closed a US military base and joined the Eurasian Union. It hosts a Russian military base near capital Bishkek, and the sides are in negotiations over a second according to Russian news agency RIA.

File photo of Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev /tdmmb.org Photo

However, despite being rich in gold, the country remains one of the poorest in the world. The poverty rate was 22.9 percent in 2016, according to the World Bank. In 2017, growth is up on the previous year on the back of increased gold mining and inflation down.

The main contenders

The next person to occupy the presidential office will help determine whether Kyrgyzstan can continue along a steady path of lurch back to instability, although it is notable that a referendum last year shifted some powers from the president to the prime minister.

The two main candidates have similar policy platforms – they are committed to a secular state, and maintaining close ties to Russia – but they represent different interests within the country.

Sooronbai Jeenbekov: The Social Democrat Party's candidate is backed by the current president, and stepped down as prime minister in August to run for the top job. The 58-year-old previously served as governor of southern Osh Province, where he enjoys strong support. Sapar Isakov, Atambayev's former chief of staff and Jeenbekov's replacement as prime minister, would likely retain that position if Jeenbekov wins.

Kyrgyz Prime Minister Sooronbai Jeenbekov has been nominated as the Social Democratic Party's candidate for president. /RFE Photo

Omurbek Babanov: The wealthy businessman entered parliament in 2005, founded the pro-business Respublika Party in 2010, and served as prime minister for nine months in 2012. The 47-year-old studied in Moscow, and built his fortune in neighboring Kazakhstan. He has promised to crack down on corruption, push a pro-business agenda, and implement constitutional reform.

The leader of the Respublika-Ata-Jurt faction and Respublika party Omurbek Babanov was nominated by the National Congress (National Kurultai) as a candidate for presidential elections. /AKI Press Photo

The nine other candidates aren't thought to be in serious contention, but their campaigns are jostling for positions in a new government.

Campaign issues

Neighboring Kazakhstan has been a major election issue, with accusations that Astana has taken sides in the election. Babanov's close ties to Kazakhstan sparked controversy in September, when he met with the country's President Nursultan Nazarbaev – a meeting the Kyrgyz foreign ministry said amounted to election meddling.

In a sign of tensions, Kazakhstan implemented tighter border checks on the Kyrgyz border this week.

An estimated one million Kyrgyz live overseas, according to AFP, and the country is one of the most reliant on remittances in the world. Money transfers home have made up between a quarter and a third of GDP in recent years, World Bank data suggests. Bringing these migrants home to work has been a contentious issue in the election.

Children left behind by parents who find work abroad are a growing concern in Kyrgyzstan. /Eurasianet.org Photo

The campaign has also featured allegations and counter allegations of corruption. Babanov has promised a sweeping crackdown on corruption, while Reuters reported that Jeenbekov told his rival in a live TV debate: “I am going to start my fight against corruption with you.” Babanov has denied any wrongdoing and dismissed claims his supporters planned to bribe voters.

How does the system work?

Kyrgyzstan‘s voting system uses biometric data to prevent fraud, and about half of the six million population is believed to have the card necessary to cast a ballot.

The Kyrgyz Central Election Commission has established 2,375 polling stations, including 37 overseas stations. About 800 international observers from 58 countries and 46 international organizations will observe the voting.

Visiting members of a local electoral commission conduct electronic identification of a voter (C) during early voting at the presidential election in the village of Arashan outside Bishkek, on October 14, 2017. /Reuters Photo

It is widely expected that Jeenbekov and Babanov will finish as the two leading candidates, but in such a crowded field it is unlikely that either will receive the 50 percent plus one required for victory.

If no candidate wins an outright majority in the first round of voting, a second-round run-off will take place in November. That has never happened before in Kyrgyzstan.

(CGTN's Zhao Hong contributed to the story.)

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