Complicated Global Trade Ties: Sending commodities markets down
Updated 20:46, 20-Jul-2018
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02:48
Trade frictions are sending the commodities markets down, with several indices hitting record lows. Mi Jiayi has been talking to analysts to find out more about the shifts taking place in global trade.
Soybeans have been hit the hardest by the trade turmoil, with prices falling to their lowest in over one year last Friday. China is the world's biggest consumer of soybeans, having contributed 85 percent to the global growth in soybean trade over the past 20 years. Most of China's imports have come from the United States, but since the imposition of extra import tariffs by both countries, China has begun shifting its imports and that has hurt the soybean commodity trade badly.
JIANG MINGDE, CHIEF CONSULTANT YIXINWEIYE FUND "Companies importing soybeans for their oil now have thinner profits becuase of the high tariff on US soybeans. So they are turning to South American soybeans, and that has sent the prices of these soybeans up. But even so, they are cheaper than US soybeans and that has led to a fall in US soybean futures."
Soybeans are not the only commodity being affected. China is the world's biggest consumer of copper, coal and steel, has a large influence on the future prices of these commodities as well. Copper prices have now fallen for five weeks straight, the longest slump since 2015. But Jiang says the intensifying China-US trade tensions are not the only reason for the fall in prices. Complicated global trade relationships are not making things any easier. The situation is more complex in the case of crude oil. The United States is sanctioning Iran's oil exports, and that puts supply pressure on Asian countries' oil imports, including those of India and China. Crude oil prices in New York and London had been trending up over the past few weeks, but then dumped more than 3.5 percent last Wednesday, and have remained lukewarm since.
SHAO YU, CHIEF ECONOMIST ORIENT SECURITIES "The key issue is how the November sanctions will be implemented. Iran's major export destinations are Asian countries. If the market can't find subsitute for Iranian oil, then that will send prices up. Many companies are now looking to adjust their supply chains, and that will stir up the market in the short term."
Shao notes that the US is also a major producer of oil and gas, and says that if China were to decide to buy more petroleum from the US, it would help balance the two countries' trade relationship, as well as easing supply and demand differences in the crude market. That, of course, depends on the nations involved working out a solution that will satisfy all parties. If that does not happen, he says we can look for continued large fluctuations in the market.