N. Ireland: Does Brexit threaten Good Friday Agreement?

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The Good Friday Agreement, struck on April 10, 1998, was a landmark deal that put an end to decades of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland that was marked by bombings and shootings, which left over 3,500 people killed.

But two decades later, some worry that the hard-fought-for peace is again at risk, not least with Brexit – and a possible hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland – on the horizon.

So what was the deal, what brought it about and what is the reality on the ground today?

What was Good Friday?

The deal, named after the Christian holiday on which it fell, was signed in Belfast by the Irish and British governments as well as Northern Irish political parties, and marked the end of what had become known as The Troubles.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair (R), US Senator George Mitchell (C) and Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern (L) smile after they sign an historic agreement for peace in Northern Ireland, April 10, 1998. /VCG Photo

These had started in 1968, pitting mostly Catholic republicans – those keen to see Northern Ireland become part of the Republic of Ireland (ROI) – against mostly Protestant unionists or loyalists – who wanted to remain part of the UK.

Violent clashes between demonstrators and police paved the way for paramilitary groups like the Provisional Irish Republican Army (IRA) and Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF), who quickly turned to bombings, assassinations and kidnappings, often targeting civilians but also British troops to exert pressure on the other side.

The result was divided communities, with certain streets marked as Protestant and others as Catholic, separated by so-called peace walls.

A paramilitary mural is seen on a wall in East Belfast in Northern Ireland, Oct. 20, 2015. /VCG Photo

Even today, names like Londonderry, Omagh and “Bloody Sunday” evoke the intense sectarian divisions at the time in Northern Ireland.

The signatories of the Good Friday Agreement vowed: “We firmly dedicate ourselves to the achievement of reconciliation, tolerance, and mutual trust, and to the protection and vindication of the human rights of all."

The deal also called for the establishment of a power-sharing government and the participants committed to disarming all paramilitary groups.

Has it worked?

In August 1998, four months after the Good Friday Agreement was signed, a bomb killed 29 people in Omagh – the worst atrocity yet. But the violence eventually faded. A referendum in May showed a majority of people backed the deal.

Pedestrians walk along Donegall Place in Belfast, Northern Ireland, April 4, 2018. /VCG Photo

Today, the situation in Northern Ireland is relatively peaceful: Investment has poured in and people can move about more freely. But divisions remain.

According to a recent poll by Sky News, 47 percent of respondents found that the divide between Protestants and Catholics was as deep today as in 1998, or deeper.

"A lot of people are wondering really how much has Northern Ireland changed in 20 years," Siobhan Fenton, author of an upcoming book on the Good Friday Agreement, told AFP news agency.

The problem with Brexit

With peace still fragile in Northern Ireland, observers have warned that any change could destabilize the situation.

The main issue of concern is Brexit. The ROI and the UK, two EU members, have basically had an open border for years in Northern Ireland. But this could end when the UK leaves the bloc, creating a hard border with checkpoints and customs controls.

Anti-Brexit campaigners are seen outside the Stormont Estate, the seat of the Northern Ireland Assembly, in Belfast, March 29, 2017. /VCG Photo

The issue has become a key point in Brexit negotiations between London and Brussels. While a majority of British voters voted in favor of leaving the bloc in June 2016, nearly 56 percent of Northern Irish voters opted to remain.

A feud between ruling parties in Belfast – the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and nationalist Sinn Fein – has meanwhile left the region without a government for over a year, raising questions about the future of the Good Friday Agreement’s power-sharing provisions.

The road ahead

Some have suggested that a referendum on reunification with Ireland could be the solution to the Northern Ireland border problem. This was already put forward in the Good Friday Agreement but only if the majority of the population was clearly in favor of it, which is not currently the case.

A general view of the Bogside area and the Bloody Sunday mural depicting Father Edward Daly waving a white handkerchief pictured on February 24, 2017 in Derry, Northern Ireland. /VCG Photo

For the brokers of the historic deal, there is definitely uncertainty ahead for the region.

"I don't think anyone can say with absolute confidence that there will never be a return to violence. We have to keep that in mind at all times," former US Special Envoy for Northern Ireland George Mitchell told BBC Radio 4 in a recent interview.

"While the overwhelming majority of people in Northern Ireland don't want to return to the violence of The Troubles, there remain very small but dangerous groups who don't feel that there should have been any compromise at all, who are still willing to use violence."

Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams (R) holds a copy of the Good Friday agreement with Martin McGuinness (L) as they speak to journalists in the Stormont parliament building in Belfast, Northern Ireland, October 14, 2002. /VCG Photo

Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, one of the signatories of the Good Friday Agreement, was equally cautious.

"Peace has to be worked on continually, so you should never think of it as guaranteed," he told journalists ahead of Tuesday's anniversary.

"The Good Friday Agreement will have to survive Brexit, and should survive Brexit, but it's a complication," he acknowledged.

April 10, 2018

On Tuesday, Blair, Mitchell and other former leaders and brokers of the Good Friday deal – including former Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern, former US President Bill Clinton and former First Minister of Northern Ireland David Trimble – are due to mark the 20th anniversary of the deal in Belfast.‍

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