World Economic Outlook: IMF cuts global growth forecast to 3.7% for 2018 and 2019 as risks rise
Updated 07:37, 13-Oct-2018
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The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday released its World Economic Outlook at its annual meeting on the Indonesian island of Bali. And the numbers aren't looking good, as optimism on global economic growth declines. CGTN's Chuck Tinte has the details.
Trade hostilities are taking their toll on global growth.
And IMF has the numbers to back that up.
According to its updated World Economic Outlook, the global economy is predicted to grow at 3.7-percent in both 2018 and 2019. This is down from its July forecast of 3.9-percent for both years. 
CHRISTINE LAGARDE IMF MANAGING DIRECTOR "We have always said at the IMF that trade war, trade tariffs are not helpful globally, and likely to have negative consequences on growth. So we maintain that view."
The IMF said the downgrade reflects a confluence of factors. 
A significant issue is the ongoing China-US trade war, weaker performances by eurozone countries, Britain and Japan, and rising interest rates that are pressuring some emerging markets with capital flows -- notably Argentina, Brazil, Turkey, Mexico and Indonesia. 
MAURICE OBSTFELDIMF CHIEF ECONOMIST"Whenever the dollar gets stronger and US interest rates rise, financial conditions tighten for emerging markets. This is something that happens every once in a while. It's therefore important for emerging markets to have strong policy frameworks which can help them deal with these pressures. One line of defense is a very flexible exchange rate, which can help buffer shocks."
The organization also revised down China's outlook for next year -- forecasting only 6.2-percent growth in 2019 against its earlier 6.4-percent prediction.
However, the IMF did stick to its projection for China for this year -- that of 6.6 percent growth.
The US economy, on the other hand, has been shielded so far from the ill effects of the trade war, thanks to stimulus through tax cuts and spending policies. But the IMF said that will wear off by 2020. 
CHRISTINE LAGARDE IMF MANAGING DIRECTOR "We very much hope that reason will prevail, and that all players will come to the table, and will agree to improve the rules by which trade happens." 
The IMF added if Beijing and Washington were to resolve their trade differences, it "would be a significant upside to the forecast". Chuck Tinte, CGTN.