Five talking points after Merkel-Schulz debate

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Europe

The campaign to become Germany’s next chancellor spluttered into life on Sunday evening as Angela Merkel sparred with rival Martin Schulz in the only television debate ahead of the September 24 election.

Billed as Social Democrat (SPD) candidate, Schulz’s last chance to claw back a 17-point poll deficit, particularly given Merkel’s poor record in debates and with almost half of voters undecided, the head-to-head debate was eagerly anticipated.

Merkel cements lead

But did Schulz take his chance? The short answer is, no. Snap polls after the 97-minute clash suggested Merkel had won the debate for Germany’s top job at the fourth attempt, and by a convincing margin.

German chancellor and leader of the CDU Angela Merkel after a televised debate with Martin Schultz in Berlin on September 3, 2017. /AFP Photo

A poll conducted by German national broadcaster ARD showed that 55 percent viewed Merkel as the more convincing performer, against 35 percent for Schulz. A ZDF survey was closer, putting the 63-year-old chancellor 32-29 ahead.

Schulz landed some blows on the three-time chancellor, but Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) allies seem unlikely to have surrendered much of their healthy lead over the SPD.

Recent elections in the US and UK have highlighted the dangers of making assumptions based on polling three weeks before votes are cast, but mapping a route to the chancellorship for Schulz is fast becoming impossible.

Schulz running out of options

A consistent difficulty for Schulz during the campaign has been forcing Merkel to engage on major issues – the incumbent chancellor rarely even refers to her challenger by name, let alone spars with him.

Martin Schulz, leader of Germany's SPD, after a televised debate with Angela Merkel in Berlin on September 3, 2017. /AFP Photo

After years of working in a grand coalition, the CDU and SDP platforms are not hugely dissimilar – finding wedge issues has proved difficult for the former president of the European Parliament.

The 61-year-old has raised the rhetoric in recent weeks and tried to unbalance Merkel with stronger language on Sunday night, but in campaigns led by visuals the most important message is often carried by demeanor and tone as much as content.

German chancellor Angela Merkel and challenger Martin Schulz spar during a televised debate in a television studio in Berlin,on September 3, 2017. /AFP Photo via RTL‍

Merkel remained calm and in control on Sunday evening, playing up her influence on the world stage and emphasizing her experience when challenged on her decision to open Germany's borders in 2015 to refugees from Syria and Iraq.

Faced with an onslaught from Schulz, Merkel simply replied: "In the life of a chancellor, there are moments when you have to make a quick decision."

Struggling to differentiate his platform and faced with a respected, experienced stateswoman in a time of global uncertainty, options for Schulz to salvage his campaign and his party's post-election role are running out.

German-Turkish strains

Schulz has struggled to put Merkel under pressure during the campaign, and despite her steady performance in the debate he was successful in forcing her into strengthening her line on Germany’s strained relationship with Turkey.

Angela Merkel on Sunday committed to ending Turkey’s hopes of joining the EU, amid tense Berlin-Ankara relations. /AFP Photo

Ties between Germany and Turkey have deteriorated sharply since a failed coup attempt last year in Turkey, after which Berlin sharply criticized President Erdogan’s wide-ranging crackdown on dissidents.

After the SPD leader said he would block Ankara’s bid to become a member of the European Union, Merkel said she would seek to end EU membership talks with Ankara.

"It is clear that Turkey should not become a member of the EU," she said.

The wider implications of pushing Turkey away from the bloc - for migration into the EU, Syria, and where Turkey turns to for future alliances - could be substantial.

Banana skins ahead?

One of the few issues to gain traction during the campaign has been the “dieselgate scandal”, which stems from VW’s admission that it fitted 11 million diesel engines with "defeat devices" to cheat on emissions tests.

The Volkswagen "dieselgate" scandal continues to resonate in Germany, and could open opportunities for smaller parties. /AFP Photo

During the debate both candidates broadly agreed that the huge German car industry must be protected, and opposed any ban on diesel-powered cars. Merkel will on Monday meet German town and city leaders who are considering full or partial bans on diesel vehicles.

Although both major parties hold close ties to the powerful car industry, the issue offers an element of uncertainty – and could provide an opportunity for smaller parties.

Eyes turn to post-election coalition

Merkel is widely assumed to be on course for a fourth term as chancellor, so the eyes of many are turning to the make-up of a post-election coalition.

The center-right CDU-CSU grouping led by Merkel is well ahead, and Schulz’s SPD – current governing collation partners -- remains firmly in second place.

Christian Lindner, lead candidate of the German Free Democrats, is hoping to lead his party to third place -- and a possible place in coalition government. /AFP Photo

The smaller parties also debated last night, in a separate event: the far-left Die Linke, the liberal Free Democrats, the Greens and the far-right Alternative for Germany are all polling at around seven percent.

The CDU have ruled out working with Die Linke or the Alternative for Germany, but a strong showing from the Free Democrats and Greens could see an end to the grand coalition with the SPD - and a new figure in the foreign ministry.

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Source(s): AFP ,Reuters