The World Bank on Thursday raised this year's growth prospects for China. It says in its latest East Asia and Pacific Economic Update that global growth could be better than ever in 2018. However, the World Bank also says that growing protectionism in the U.S could weigh on global trade and pressure East Asian countries. CGTN's Silkina Ahluwalia has more from Jakarta.
The World Bank's economic update remains relatively positive for the year 2018, with data showing that it could be a decent year for global economic growth compared to 2017 and the year before. The global economy grew faster than expected last year and growth increased in more than half of the world's economies, mostly led by strong investments. East Asia's growth in particular accelerated slightly in 2017 reflecting the promising global environment.
SUDHIR SHETTY, CHIEF ECONOMIST EAST ASIA PACIFIC REGION WORLD BANK "Developing East Asia Pacific continues to do better than most other developing regions and likely continue to do so in the immediate future. Growth in the region in 2017 was higher than in 2016. This reflected higher than expected growth in China as well as several of the large ASEAN economies."
The report states that after growing faster than expected in 2017, China's economy could begin to slow in 2018 as its economy continues to rebalance. The moderation of growth to 6.5 percent would be the result of greater focus on the slowing of credit growth, which could reduce capacity in heavy industries. To help ease that, more countries should begin to put more attention into technological advancements by upgrading capabilities and ensuring that knowledge of digital technology is improved.
SUDHIR SHETTY, CHIEF ECONOMIST EAST ASIA PACIFIC REGION WORLD BANK "Global conditions are expected to continue to be supportive in 2018, global growth is expected to peak at 3.2 percent in 2018 in both advanced economies and emerging economies are likely to move faster than in 2017. In the latter, the increase of growth will be broad-based with commodity exporters growing faster while commodity-importer will see stable growth. Following rapid growth of trade in 2017, it is the fastest pace since 2010 so after the financial crisis, it is expected to continue to grow in 2018 at over 4 percent."
Projections of large ASEAN economies is considerably robust and stable in 2018, with much of the focus on Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines. Improved investments and private consumptions led to the growth in those regions. Although most areas seem hopeful, the report also mentions few challenges that East Asian and Pacific countries could face.
SUDHIR SHETTY, CHIEF ECONOMIST EAST ASIA PACIFIC REGION WORLD BANK "A trade war is not imminent. What we've seen at this point are threats and counter-threats of the imposition of tariffs on the side of the United States and then matched on the side of China. Those tariffs have not yet gone into effect. One of the things we know is that the success of this region is based on open trade, it is based on the developing of these value chains that over the last decade or so have been increasingly centered on China so the imposition of these tariffs will have the tendency of disrupting those value chains, those regional value chains."
With that protectionism on the rise, there is a risk that the recovery in global trade could be halted, affecting Indonesian exports and therefore, slowing growth. But mechanisms such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Belt and Road Initiative, which helps connectivity between the countries, will prove to be even more important as the region begins to adapt to emerging challenges. Silkina Ahluwalia, CGTN, Jakarta.