In this Autumn I attended the Beijing Forum, coinciding with the summit of the heads of state of China and the United States. The Sino-US relations that have been noticed throughout the world are closely linked to President Trump's term of office. 

Chinese academics and leaders can predict the impact of Trump's presidency on the international order and global governance. Business elites will judge the risks of trade and investment and the New York stock market based on Trump’s sustainability of "Make America Great Again." Ordinary people concerned about the impact of the new Trump Administration on the exchange rate of the dollar, and the continuity of its immigration policy on their study and travel abroad. As a member of the Pangu Think Tank, it is necessary to try to predict the validity of the presidential power of a superpower.

On October 31, 2016, the Halloween day, I was teaching International Marketing at the MBA class of New York Institute of Techonolgy (NYIT). As a case study, we discussed political marketing and the US presidential election. I wore Trump's mask in a group photo with the class of 40 students, and predicted that my presidential candidate would likely become a true president.

If I predict again Trump's presidential tenure, and I will still use the same political marketing principles, which are not directed by CNN or FOX daily news, but a comprehensive analysis of the political system, the Republican strategies and policies, Trump's administrative characteristics and The Art of Media War (孙子说法), as well as the impacts on the Trump family and its empire, and to evaluate and predict the president's political life through its approval ratings.

According to the Chinese Ancient Philosopher, Xunzi, "The water can carry the boat, it can also overturn the boat." Mr Trump's election was supported by voters in the primary stage putting him on top of the initial 17 Republican candidates, and was favored by the Electoral College system by winning with a 46 percent absolute minority popular votes (Hillary Clinton had 48 percent surpassing Trump by almost 3 million votes). This election system can put Trump on the throne, and the dissent of public opinion can also pull the emperor down.

In the United States, the president’s approval rating is a barometer of politics and can often be translated into the president's political values. The average approval rate for Trump during the 300-day administration is 38 percent. According to Gallup's statistics, Trump had an average approval rate of 36.9 percent in the month of October with a minimum of 33 percent, and a maximum disapproval rate of 62 percent (GPA for US presidents is 53 percent overall from 1938-2017). Mr Trump's low approval rate has gone beyond the party line with 6 percent among Democrats and 78 percent among Republicans (the ruling party's non-supporting rate is 22 percent). The high disapproval rate and the pressure of the opposition party could result in the impeachment of the president.

The separation of power in the United States puts the president's power under the check and balance of its Congress and Supreme Court. The US Constitution stipulates that "the president, the vice president and all US officials will be dismissed if they have been impeached or confirmed as guilty of treason, bribery and other crimes and unlawful acts." In 1787 at the Philadelphia Constitutional Convention Franklin proposed to remove the Chief Executive by impeachment, based on the phenomenon of previous assassination of some tyrants.

In the 230 years history of the United States, there have been three presidential impeachments: 1. Andrew Johnson, Vice-President succeeded to be President after Lincoln's assassination in 1865. In the third year of Johnson’s administration, he was impeached by the Republican-controlled Congress resulting from the failure to protect free slaves after the Civil War. 2. In his fifth year of Presidency, Nixon was forced to resign in 1974 due to the "Watergate" scandal. His radical remarks still resonate: "The news is the enemy. When the president does it, it will not be illegal." 3. In his fifth year of office, President Clinton was impeached with sex scandal, but both charges were eventually dropped by the Senate.

Democrats have been calling for Trump’s impeachment even before the general election on November 8, 2016. On November 15, 2017 six members of Congress, led by Steve Cohen, submitted the Articles of Impeachment against Trump with the following five counts:

1. Obstruction of Justice ("Russiagate" six crimes);

2. Violation of Article I, Section 9 of the US Constitution – Foreign Emoluments (seven wrongful acts);

3. Violation of Article II, Section 1 of the U.S. Constitution – Domestic Emoluments

4. Undermining the Independence of the Federal Judiciary and the Rule of Law

5. Undermining Freedom of the Press (three pieces of evidence, including repeated calling the news media, “Fake News”).

In this case, Trump has the impeachment calling in his first year of presidency same as Nixon in the fifth year of administration. Since the Republican party has a majority in both houses, it is unlikely to impeach the President by the two-thirds votes needed in the Senate. Nonetheless, President Trump's term can be predicted by the following three facts:

1. If Trump's approval rating continues to be low, it is likely that the Democrats will win more seats in the 2018 mid-term elections, will control both houses and will enact the case of Presidential impeachment.

2. By then, in order to maintain its political agenda, the Republican party may adopt a strategy to support the impeachment of Trump and to replace with the optimal combination of Pence and Ryan team and continue to the Republican administration.

3. In addition, the Special Counsel’s investigation into "Russiagate" may also bring Trump's son and son-in-law to justice, and to force the president to resign.

In short, Trump will hardly change himself while his approval rate will be difficult to rise. Even with all the advisors, it is hard for Trump to continue win the media war with tricks such as "A rabbit a day," the presidential tweets, and the “Panda Principles." It is unforeseeable whether Trump’s presidential term will be two or four years.  

However, Trump is good at changing others: If he can continue to apply the Art of War and carry out the following five strategies, there may be still chance for him to turn around.

1. Divest the Trump Empire businesses as soon as possible to avoid accusations of abusing the presidential power, and “put the power in the cage of law."

2. Draw a clear line with the Trump children, keep his son-in-law and daughter out of the White House, and clear himself from any legal complications of his own children.

3. Campaign actively again and strive to keep the Republican majority after the next mid-term election.

4. Try to work with the opposition party for governance and peace, to hopefully gain some support by individual Democrats to drop the presidential impeachment.

5. Continue to promote job and economy with presidential tweets and the Art of Media War.

(Sun Hong is a member of Academic Committee of Pangu Institution, China and an International Director of BRI, University of Chester, UK. The author’s opinions are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of CGTN.)