Which film will win China’s holiday box office war?

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Days before China’s National Day holiday, expectations are hotting up for this traditionally busy season for the box office as 12 movies are set to make their debut.

Movie producers are even more excited about the festive period than usual this year, because of its overlap with the Mid-Autumn Festival, another important traditional holiday.

From state-owned companies such as China Film Co. and Shanghai Film Group to private players including Bona Film Group and Wanda Pictures, nearly all the major Chinese filmmakers have joined the battlefield.

A poster for the film "Sky Hunter" /Handout Photo

Articles about market competition are often filled with wartime metaphors, but it’s especially appropriate in this case, as there has been a trend for nationalistic military movies dominating China’s box office in recent years.

This summer, “War Wolf 2” set a record for a Chinese movie by taking 5.6 billion yuan (84 million US dollars) at the country’s box office. “Operation Mekong” was a big hit the year before.

What can be expected?

“Sky Hunter”, the directorial debut by Chinese actor Li Chen, is the latest in this line of war movies. About the Chinese Air Force, “Sky Hunter” is particularly anticipated after Li’s recent engagement to Fan Bingbing, the superstar actress with whom he shares top billing in the movie.

Also among the 12 National Day releases, Jackie Chan and Pierce Brosnan vehicle “The Foreigner” is an action-thriller based on 1992 novel “The Chinaman”, which tells the story of a father who embarks on a mission of revenge after his daughter is killed in a terrorist bombing in London. It is also Jackie Chan’s first Hollywood film after grabbing an honorary Oscar in 2016.

Judging from the trailer, the subject matter is more serious than the typical Jackie Chan comedy-action.

A poster for the film "Sky Hunter" /Handout Photo

The other films cover all the popular genres including comedy, fancy, youth and crime. However, it was announced just two days ago that the release of “Youth”, one of the films people were most looking forward to this holiday period, has been postponed. The distributor did not give a reason for the rearranged schedule of Chinese director Feng Xiaogang’s latest.

Who will be victorious?

A poster for "The Foreigner". /Handout Photo‍

Even though a record number of films are waiting to hit the screens, it does not necessarily guarantee a big rise in the box office.

Insiders said the quality of movies have been playing an increasingly important role in attracting audiences. It is hard to say which one will emerge as a new blockbuster.

More than 30 companies have invested in the 12 films. While most of them put money into one to two, Wanda Pictures has invested in five. All five have secured big stars and exposure on the Internet. Many therefore expect Wanda to be the big winner.

The cast from "The Foreigner" /Handout Photo

However, according to Xu Shan, investment analyst at Southwest Securities, spreading investment across a number of films limits risk but will likely see Wanda’s profits diluted.

Wanda, despite having an advantage in quantity, may not secure the crown in National Day box office.

What do experts say about the slowdown in Chinese cinema?

A poster for the film "Youth", which has been withdrawn from holiday box office competition /Handout Photo

China’s 2015 box office stood at 44.07 billion yuan, growing 48.7 percent year on year. In 2016, the box office was 45.7 billion yuan, with the year-on-year growth stuttering to 3.73 percent.

Rao Shuguang, secretary-general of the China Film Association, said he is not pessimistic about the trend. For Ren, the box office of “War Wolf 2” suggested that the Chinese film market still has great potential.

“Content is the key,” said Xu Shan, adding that “reflection, adjustment, study and elevation of professionalism and experience are also required to take control”. He believes that better promotion is another crucial element for a successful film.

Market analysis is required, said Xu, so as to maximize the publicity effect as well as to avoid wasting resources and costs.

As of September 24, the box office for Chinese films in 2017 has already reached 42.1 billion yuan, still three billions less than the total for 2016.

It almost depends on the coming holiday to decide whether the industry can hand in a satisfying test paper.

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