The declaration from Alexander Lavrentiev, the Russian president’s special envoy for Syria, stated that Tehran, Moscow, and Ankara have reached an agreement on the list of participants in the Syrian National Dialogue Congress came amidst Turkey’s military offensive – “Operation Olive Branch.”

The peace conference is expected to bring together about 1,500 participants from the entire spectrum of Syria’s political forces with the exception of PYD, the YPG’s political arm, as Ankara sees the group as terrorists and not representing the Kurds in Syria.

The second Sochi meeting will be a litmus test for Turkey’s trajectory while the cards are being reshuffled in the region, especially after the startling photograph of Trump, King Salman and Sisi placing their hands on a glowing orb at the summit in Riyadh in May 2017 was taken. The West, primarily the United States, is about to lose Turkey, a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ally, as Ankara prepares to join the Sochi meeting at a time when it launched “Operation Olive Branch” with the cooperation of Moscow. Turkey vowed to clear all YPG “terrorists” from northern Syria, including Manbij and the eastern parts of the Euphrates where the US has sent nearly 5,000 truckloads and 2,000 aircraft-loads of weaponry and military support to YPG so far.

Smoke rises after an airstrike over Saraqib town of Idlib in Syria on January 28, 2018. /VCG Photo

If there is one single issue between Turkey, Russia and Iran drawing the three countries closer together, it is their opposition to the American military presence in the region. Another point worth mentioning is the slight change in Ankara’s negative attitude towards the Assad regime which would ease negotiations in the upcoming Sochi meeting. For example, when asked if Turkey and the Assad regime could cooperate against the PYD and YPG, Erdoğan said that in politics, it would not be proper to reject all options out of hand.

Turkey, however, differs from Russia and Iran on several points. When given the vicious repression of Syrian opposition forces by Assad over the last seven years, including the use of chemical weapons and the intentional targeting of strictly civilian areas, it is, from Turkey’s perspective, impossible for the head of the regime to remain in power in the long term reconstruction of Syria, whereas Tehran’s and Moscow’s ultimate preference is to leave Assad in power.

Another source of friction between Moscow and Ankara is Putin’s usage of the YPG against Turkish interests in Syria. PYD still maintains a political office in Moscow. Negative Iranian attitudes towards Turkey’s “Operation Olive Branch,” despite Turkey’s numerous announcements that the aim is to cleanse the border of terrorists and to protect the territorial integrity of Syria, might have a negative impact on the Sochi meeting.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) hold a joint press conference after their meeting at State Residence of Russian President in Sochi, Russia on May 03, 2017. /VCG Photo

Behind the curtain, however, there are some factors bringing Turkey, Iran and Russia closer to each other as they have all been threatened by US sanctions. The Trump administration announced new sanctions related to Russia's occupation of Crimea and ongoing violence in eastern Ukraine.

In a similar vein, Washington has been holding sanctions like a sword of Democles over Iran as Trump said that he would waive nuclear sanctions on Iran for the last time to give the US and European allies a final chance to amend the pact. Turkey is also going through a very difficult time as it risks sanctions for buying S-400 missiles from Russia. Washington is also trying to discredit Turkey as a US jury recently found a Turkish banker guilty of helping Iran evade US sanctions.

Bashar al-Jaafari, Syrian chief negotiator and Ambassador of the Permanent Representative Mission of Syria to the United Nations, speaks to journalists after the talks on Syria in Vienna on January 26, 2018. /VCG Photo‍

Turkey’s strong belief that the failed coup attempt in Turkey in July 2016 was engineered by the CIA. Whereas the Iranian leadership’s public condemnation of the coup attempt within hours and support of Erdoğan during the coup attempt also boosted relations with Tehran. Erdoğan also paid his first visit to Moscow following the coup attempt in July 2016.

In the light of these developments, Ankara, Moscow and Tehran will probably spend most of their efforts in Sochi to end seven years of war and support a united Syria with a new constitution as they are quite anxious about newly emerging regional order, post-Arab spring, as the latest Gulf crisis showed how the United States have been following unpredictable and opaque policies. In a nutshell, the cards are being reshuffled at a time when the international system lacks a hegemonic state which is able to bring peace to the Middle East.  

(The author is a Professor at İstanbul Medeniyet University. She is the author of many books, articles on Syria, Iran and was a visiting scholar at Cambridge University, UK and St. Andrews University, Scotland, UK in 2011 and 2013 respectively. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the view of CGTN.)