Can Abe push through constitutional revision?

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‍By CGTN's The Point

Shinzo Abe, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), was re-elected as Japan's prime minister on November 1 in both chambers of parliament, and his fourth cabinet is now serving the country.

In September, Abe dissolved the lower house of the parliament and a month later called a snap election. Ahead of the polls opening, Abe himself set a modest target of a simple majority.

But the final results culminated in a landslide win. The LDP-Komeito coalition secured 313 of the 465 seats in the lower house, passing the 310-barrier for the two-thirds majority necessary for constitutional change.

“Abe put Japan’s national crisis at the top of the agenda - the threat from North Korea. He created insecurity and fear among the Japanese population,” Naoko Kumada, a visiting scholar at the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University said on CGTN’s The Point.

Naoko Kumada, a visiting scholar at the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University. /CGTN Photo

“When people face that kind of fear, it’s difficult to vote for other parties because, for a long time, the LDP has won people’s votes with the faith that in critical times, they are the ones who can protect the country,” she explained.

Abe hopes to amend the country's constitution by 2020 in order to formally recognize the military. Any change to Japan’s constitution first requires two-thirds approval from both houses of parliament and then a simple majority in a public referendum.

Now that Abe’s LDP coalition retained its two-thirds "super majority" in parliament's lower house in the October 22 election, he is re-energizing his push to revise the constitution.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (front, C) and members of his Cabinet pose for photos at the prime minister's office in Tokyo on Nov. 1, 2017. /VCG Photo

The situation on the Korean Peninsula can almost certainly be used as a justification.

So is the environment better than ever for Abe to promote these constitutional changes?

Naoko Kumada said it’s not clear.

“We see that there is a new force that emerged from the result of the election. Nobody expects that the Constitutional Democratic Party would become the largest opposition to beat the Party of Hope. So there is still a very strong opposition force against the LDP,” she said.

But she also pointed out another worrisome fact. “We also see that 80% of the Lower House seats are occupied by the pro-constitutional reform forces. So we will have to observe very carefully where the Japanese public opinion will go,” Kumada said.

In 2015, Abe successfully managed to push for a reinterpretation of the constitution to allow troops to fight overseas under certain circumstances. So is there any chance the constitutional revisions will be passed?

Angus Lockyer, a lecturer in Japanese History at SOAS at the University of London said, “Constitutional revisions will probably come at some point.”

“Even if the constitutional revisions happen, this would be with a framework of regional cooperation and understanding,” he said.

Angus Lockyer, a lecturer in Japanese History at SOAS at the University of London. /CGTN Photo

“I am a historian, and I say this fervently – I think a better understanding of history is still something that needs to be worked on throughout the region indeed, coming to terms with the past.”

The Point with Liu Xin is a 30-minute current affairs program on CGTN. It airs weekdays at 9.30 p.m. BJT (1330GMT), with rebroadcasts at 5.30 a.m. (2130GMT) and 10.30 a.m. (0230GMT).

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