China’s ‘new transition’ to slow GDP growth

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By CGTN's The Point

“The Chinese economy is really a model based on too much investment and export,” Liang Guoyong, a senior economist with the UN Conference on Trade and Development, said on CGTN’s The Point.

He said that the “economic transition” that China is currently experiencing now demands “ a shift of growth force from more investments to consumption.”

Liang dismissed China’s expansion of GDP growth in the first half of 2017 as a sign of a so-called “new cycle,” saying the “new normal is still the right term” for the world’s second largest economy.

Liang Guoyong speaking on CGTN's The Point. /CGTN Screenshot

He pointed out however that China will experience “transition” as well as a “natural and crucial” growth slowdown within the next three decades.

China’s posted a GDP rise of 6.9% in the first half of 2017 compared to last year’s figures for the same period, flat from the first quarter and well above the government’s target for the year of 6.5%, reflecting a firming trend in the nation’s economy, the Xinhua news agency reported.

Thanks to a series of stimulus packages from Beijing, such as “more investment and financial support” in its fiscal policies, the “Chinese economy is warming up, but it’s not into a stage of rapid growth above, for example, 7%,” Liang said.

Liang gives his personal long-term view of China’s economic trajectory in his book, “Chinese Economy 2040.”

He said GDP growth is beating the six to seven percent range for the first period (2010-20), while the second period (2021-30) will see a growth rate from four to six percent, followed by a sharp decrease to two percent in the third period (2031-40).

Liang said there would be always be a limit to economic growth within the different periods, which requires China to consistently streamline its economic structures.

Is China's economy heading for a slowdown? /AFP Photo

As for the industrial structure, especially in the service sectors, reform is fully required since “the share of services is still too low,” he said.

Liang also believes that China’s digital economy, including the development of artificial intelligence and the data industry, and its sustainability concept are “positive spillover”, crucial to the economy both at home and abroad.

The Point with Liu Xin is a 30-minute current affairs program on CGTN. It airs weekdays at 9.30 p.m. BJT (1330GMT), with rebroadcasts at 5.30 a.m. (2130GMT) and 10.30 a.m (0230GMT).

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