Lula's trial: Jail or presidency

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Brazilians are waiting for the answer to whether the country's most popular former leader, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, can run for Brazil's 2018 presidential race after he was convicted on corruption charges in July 2017.

As the leftist former leader serving a two-term presidency from 2003 to 2010, Lula is still extremely popular among Brazilians at present as polls continue to show his lead in the upcoming 2018 presidential election.

'The best president ever'

The former US President Barack Obama once called Lula “the most popular politician on earth.”

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, former president of Brazil, center, takes a selfie with supporters during a presidential pre-campaign rally outside the Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras) Petrochemical Complex in Itaborai, Brazil, on December 7, 2017. /VCG Photo

There is a reason that many Brazilians support Lula in spite of his conviction and four other corruption investigations. Reuters reported that 30 million people in the country worked their way out of poverty due to social programs during his presidency. Lula himself also boasted that 2010 witnessed "one of the lowest unemployment rates in the history of humanity" for his country.

The Workers' Party leader Gleisi Hoffmann is optimistic about Lula's presidential campaign this year. "He was, for Brazil, hugely innovative and if he is president again, he will continue to be so. He knows how to govern Brazil and importance of governing for poor people," Miss Hoffman told BBC. "Lula will not be arrested, for Lula to be arrested, people will have to be killed."

Lula was accused of corruption and money laundering. The first of the five charges against Lula was that he was given a beachside penthouse apartment from construction company OAS. In return, the firm gained contracts with the state-owned oil company Petrobras. The house is estimated to be worth up to 550,000 US dollars in 2016, according to BBC.

But Lula denies all the charges, claiming they were politically motivated to prevent him from running for president again.

Supporters hold signs while Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, former president of Brazil, not pictured, speaks during a presidential pre-campaign rally outside the Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras) Petrochemical Complex in Itaborai, Brazil, on December 7, 2017. /VCG Photo

'A Corruptocracy'

Lula's corruption probe started with the Operation Car Wash.

Operation Car Wash refers to Brazil's biggest ever corruption probes, starting in March 2014.

It began with an investigation into allegations that Brazil's biggest construction firms overcharged Petrobras for building contracts. However, a complex web of corruption was exposed during the investigation.

Dozens of politicians were involved in the scandal, including Brazil's current president, Michel Temer, and former presidents Lula and Dilma Rousseff.

Michel Temer, Brazil's president, listens during a news conference on the the federal district subway expansion at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia, Brazil, on January 22, 2018. /VCG Photo

The former vice-president Michel Temer took up the presidency in August 2016. He was accused of receiving money from giant meatpacking company JBS, but Temer denies all charges and is still in office.

Although his predecessor Dilma Rousseff, also a close ally of Lula, was not found to have engaged in corruption in the Car Wash scandal, her handling of the economy and her government policies brought Brazil's first woman president subsequent impeachment.

As Paulo Sotero, director of the Brazil Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, named Brazil politics "a corruptocracy," telling the Financial Times that "it’s completely self-serving, it has nothing to do with the interests of the country, it is exhausted."

From the investigation conducted during Operation Car Wash, it's been revealed that the culture of corruption in Brazil has bred a system of patronage for businessmen and politicians.

People are seen near posters placed at a bus stop in support of Brazilian former President Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva, calling for people to 'Occupy Porto Alegre on January 24', in Brasilia, Brazil, on January 22, 2018. /VCG Photo

The law has also protected corrupt politicians since the country's Supreme Court requires a long and slow-moving process rather than the more dynamic lower courts.

Former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso called on profound cultural and constitutional changes to truly clean up Brazil's system in an interview and acknowledged it takes time.

He also said, "It is unlikely that the people touched by the corruption scandal will return to the leadership they once had.” However, Cardoso himself is also facing accusations in the investigation.

Over the past decade, few Brazilian presidents have escaped the trial of corruption, which brings more unpredictability to the future of the largest country in Latin America and its people.

Lula's chance of candidacy

The incumbent president Temer has tried to revive the economy since he took office, but his sluggish proposal on pension and labor reforms, which was opposed by most people, further weakened the bases for his leadership. He also faced the danger of impeachment in August last year.

People take part in a demonstration in defense of democracy and the right of former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) to be a candidate in the next national elections, in Porto Alegre in southern Brazil, on January 13, 2018. /VCG Photo‍

In June last year, polls started to show that Lula is keeping a clear lead in 2018's presidential election despite his corruption charges.

The latest poll conducted by Datafolha in December extended his popularity – Lula was favored by 34 percent of voters, which was double rating of his nearest rival, the far-right congressman and former army captain Jair Bolsonaro.

If judges uphold the conviction against Lula on Wednesday, his chance of running for the presidency this year would be slim but still possible.

Some experts say that even if the three judges pass a unanimous conviction against him, Lula will still retain some options to register his candidacy.

Brazil's former President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva raises hands with samba composer and singer Noca da Portela during an event with intellectuals and artists in support of his candidacy for president in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil ,on January 16, 2018. /VCG Photo

Brazil’s electoral authority, the TSE, is due to accept registries from presidential candidates by Aug. 15, while Lula's defense team could try to delay a final decision on his conviction as long as possible to place him on the ballot.

Ahead the opening of the court, Lula's lawyer Cristiano Zanin told media that the ruling on Wednesday would not bar him from registering for the candidacy.

On the other hand, Lula's absence in the presidential run will bring further complexities to the election, in which five or six candidates would probably reach the second round, making the 2018 election the most unpredictable one since the country restored democracy in 1985.

No matter what circumstances occur in Lula's participation in the presidential election, Brazilians are unlikely to experience a stable political life in the near future given the nature of fragmentation of the country's political parties and its slow recovery from economic recession.

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