Today in history: 2010 Smolensk tragedy

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Europe

On April 10, 2010, Polish President Lech Kaczynski, 60, was killed in a plane crash near the city of Smolensk in western Russia along with 95 others including his wife and top Polish political, military and church officials.

For most of the eight years since the tragedy, his twin brother Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the leader of governing Law and Justice (PiS) party, has led monthly marches to mark the catastrophe. On Tuesday, the ritual is taking place for the final time.

Russia is facing mounting pressure over the recent Salisbury spy row – but this is far from the first time it has been accused of crimes by a foreign nation.

Although both Poland and Russian air crash investigators concluded that the crash was accidental, the theory that Russia assassinated the Polish president has never ended.

How did the tragedy happen?

On April 7, 2010, Prime Minister Donald Tusk arrived in Smolensk alongside Vladimir Putin in a ceremony to honor the victims of Katyn massacre. That year marked the 70thh anniversary of the murder of thousands of Polish officers by Soviet secret police.

File photo: The then Polish president Lech Kaczynski arrives at the start of European Union leaders summit in Brussels, November 7, 2008. /VCG Photo

Three days later, the high-level Polish delegation headed by Lech Kaczynsk was on its way to Katyn, near Smolensk to attend a separate ceremony.

The Tupolev plane then crashed in thick fog near Smolensk killing 96 Polish people and mostly belonged to the PiS camp.

Russian investigation blamed the crash on pilot error while Polish investigation under Tusk's government largely agreed with Russia's investigation, which concluded that the "hastily, haphazardly" trained crew had flown too low, ignoring repeated warnings to pull up in weather conditions that meant they were unable to see the ground.

However, the Polish investigators also said Russian air traffic controllers should also take responsibility for misinforming the pilot about the plane's position.

Probe in progress

For years, the PiS party has cast doubt on official investigations under Tusk's government that regarded the crash an accident.

File photo: Then Polish prime minister Donald Tusk (L) and then Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin seen at Severny airport in Smolensk, April 11, 2010. /VCG Photo

Two years after the tragedy, Jaroslaw Kaczynski told Tusk during a parliamentary session: "Everything that happened before the catastrophe is your fault. This is the result of your policies. In the political sense, you bear 100 percent responsibility for the catastrophe in Smolensk".

The public also wanted a better explanation behind the crash. According to a CBOS opinion poll on the fifth anniversary of the disaster, only 20 percent believed the crash had been fully explained while 31 percent agreed the crash was caused by an assassination or attack.

Most critics argued Tusk should not have allowed the Russians to conduct the first investigation.

The Russian allegation view is promoted by Antoni Macierewicz, deputy leader of PiS. He repeatedly argued that two explosions caused the crash.

As the PiS came to power in late 2015, the then Defense Minister Macierewicz opened a new investigation aiming to prove his suspicions.

File photo: Workers attach a giant screen showing photographs of some of the 96 people killed in the recent Polish presidential plane crash in Smolensk at Pilsudski Square ahead of memorial service on April 16, 2010, in Warsaw, Poland. /VCG Photo

Last year, the commission said the plane was probably destroyed by a mid-air explosion and that Russian air traffic controllers deliberately misled Polish pilots about their location as the presidential plane was approaching the runway of the Smolensk military airport.

Is Jaroslaw Kaczynski easing up?

Jaroslaw Kaczynski Friday said Tuesday's monthly rally will be the last because there will have now been 96 of them, one for each victim. A new monument in Warsaw to honor the victims unveiled Tuesday will take over the commemorative role of the rallies.

In remarks published on Friday, he still insisted that the possibility of assassination is "99 percent."

But experts said some signs showed that he is easing up on Russian assassination theory.

Leader of Poland’s governing PiS party Jaroslaw Kaczynski (4L) stands in front of a picture of late Polish president Lech Kaczynski (R) and his wife Maria during a ceremony marking the eighth anniversary of the Smolensk plane crash in front of the presidential palace in Warsaw, Poland, April 10, 2018. /VCG Photo

Sociologist Jadwiga Staniszkis, who has known Jaroslaw Kaczynski for four decades, said during an interview with the AP that Jaroslaw Kaczynski must have realized the fact that his brother is gone.

"He is deeply changed, he is tired, crushed, unwell and he is looking for a way to gently withdraw from it and do his own private mourning."

Meanwhile, Macierewicz, supporter of the Russian assassination theory, was also removed from the position of defense minister in January.

Jaroslaw Kaczynski last week told the public the final report of the air crash will not be ready in time for the eighth anniversary of the disaster.

A woman holds Polish national flag with the picture of late President Lech Kaczynski and his wife Maria printed on, during a ceremony marking the eighth anniversary of the crash of the Polish government plane in Smolensk, Russia, outside the Presidential Palace in Warsaw, Poland, April 10, 2018. /VCG Photo

Some even said that there is no final report because the assassination theory is false with no proof.

"You cannot interminably deny facts and feed a conviction in your voters about things that did not take place and for which there is no material foundation, no proof," said Ewa Marciniak, a professor of political science at Warsaw University.

"I think Kaczynski has understood that the theory of the assassination cannot stand the test of time and he is looking for other forms of commemoration," Marciniak added

Russian President Vladimir Putin said last year urging Poland to "grow up" and turn a new page after getting tired of batting off claims of a conspiracy.