The tit-for-tat trade dispute between the US and China is generating a mix of fear and hope across Southeast Asia, which exports large volumes to both countries. Our correspondent Miro Lu in Singapore spoke to two political risk analysts to find out more.
Hans Vriens is Managing Partner of Vriens & Partners, a Singapore-headquartered corporate advisory firm specializing in government affairs, public policy and political risk analysis in Southeast Asia. He says the trade disputes between the US and China is bad news for the region.
HANS VRIENS, MANAGING PARTNER VRIENS & PARTNERS "Because many products that are being made in Southeast Asia are part of a global or regional supply chain. They are made here, go to China, like the iPhone and many other products, and then go to the US. So Southeast Asia will suffer as a result."
But there is a flip side in the long term, he says. The tariff battle could enhance the region's appeal as an alternative destination for investment and sales.
HANS VRIENS, MANAGING PARTNER VRIENS & PARTNERS"There is one positive aspect to this, but it's more the long term. That is that already move factories, moving from China to Southeast Asia, simply because of lower wages, in Vietnam, in Indonesia and Malaysia, and that trend is likely to speed up as the result of the threats by President Trump."
In a recent ASEAN finance ministers' meeting that Singapore hosted, Singapore Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat said the 10-member ASEAN bloc was estimated to have grown by an impressive 5.1 percent in 2017 and is expected to outpace most other regions this year. ASEAN covers a region of 650 million people, grouping Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Some experts say the threat of a trade war we are seeing is not going to be the last. What ASEAN needs to do is to speed up its own economic integration, and trade more among themselves.
GRAHAM ONG-WEBB, RESEARCH FELLOW S. RAJARATNAM SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES "In the medium to long-term, this sort of wakeup call if you like is good. Because it compels very significant structural shifts in the economic planning and activities in the states and in particular here in ASEAN, but in the short term, for sure it's going to upset the status quo, there are standing trading arrangements. I think what is really driving fear about trade war is the unknowns."
MIRO LU SINGAPORE Some economists put projection at a dip of 3 to 4 percentage points of world GDP over the next few years. The consensus is that everybody will be hurt if there is a trade war, but at this point, the specific damage on Southeast Asia is anyone's guess. Miro Lu, CGTN, Singapore.