Far-right politicians' return to government expected as Austria votes

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The far-right could make a return to government in Austria when voters go to the polls on Sunday in a snap election that has been dominated by talk of migrants and tighter EU borders.

A year after the small alpine state almost elected Europe’s first far-right head of state since the Second World War, the anti-immigrant, anti-Islam Freedom Party looks set to take on the role of kingmaker in a new Austrian government.

This follows a continuing populist trend in Europe that saw this year alone Front National leader Marine Le Pen reach the French presidential run-off and Germany’s AfD party enter parliament for the first time.

The main players

(L-R) Freedom Party leader Heinz-Christian Strache, Social Democrats leader Christian Kern and People's Party leader Sebastian Kurz prepare for a TV debate in Vienna, Austria, October 12, 2017. /Reuters Photo

Like in neighboring Germany, voters in Austria do not elect a leader but vote for a party.

The Social Democrats (SPOe) currently have the chancellorship but all eyes on Sunday will be on their ruling coalition partner – the conservative People’s Party (OeVP) – and the far-right Freedom Party (FPOe.)

The FPOe, already in government with the OeVP in 2000-2005, has seen its support grow over the last 12 years under leader Heinz-Christian Strache, helped by alarmist rhetoric about refugees and "economic migrants" taking social benefits away from Austrian citizens. The party is now aiming for the second place in the election, making it a top choice as coalition partner.

Meanwhile, 31-year-old political "whizz-kid" Sebastian Kurz – who has been Austria’s foreign minister since 2013 – has revitalized the OeVP, previously seen as a stuffy old party, since taking over as leader in May, boosting its popularity among young voters. The conservatives are now expected to win on Sunday and get the mandate to form the next coalition government, albeit following a radical swing to the right.

Party leader Sebastian Kurz delivers a speech at a People’s Party campaign rally in Vienna, Austria September 23, 2017. /Reuters Photo

At the other end of the political spectrum, the SPOe under Christian Kern, a media-savvy former CEO of Austrian Rail who was named chancellor just last year, has campaigned on classic Social Democrat themes like jobs and pensions but has become mired in allegations of dirty campaigning ahead of the election.

The issues

The 2015 migrant crisis put immigration and border security squarely at the center of Austrian politics, as over one million refugees streamed into Europe, most of them passing through the small country of 8.7 million on their way to Germany.

Migrants march along the highway towards the border with Austria, out of Budapest, Hungary, September 4, 2015. /VCG Photo

Traditionally FPOe themes, these issues were quickly picked up by Kurz and his "new OeVP" in a battle for far-right votes.

As foreign minister, Kurz has prided himself on closing the so-called Balkan route used by refugees to enter the EU. He also backed a burqa ban that came into force on October 1 and called for zero illegal immigration during the campaign.

"We need to decide once and for all that anyone who comes to Europe illegally does not have the right to asylum here," he repeated in a TV debate on Wednesday.

Demonstrators covering their faces participate in a protest called "The traditional clown's walk against the burqa ban" in Vienna, Austria October 1, 2017. /Reuters Photo

While Kurz has moved to the right, Strache’s Freedom Party has striven to show a friendlier side, producing sitcom-like campaign ads, and moving away from its usual loud anti-Islam posters to urge “fairness” on social aid, taxes and pensions… albeit only for Austrian citizens.

Even the Social Democrats have called for tighter security at the EU’s external borders and claimed some of the credit for a drop in refugees in the last couple of years, in an effort to appeal to some of their rivals’ voters.

With the SPOe and OeVP having ruled Austria together or alone ever since 1945, the FPOe argues it is the only leading party that can offer real change.

Who will win?

Election campaign posters for the Austrian People's Party and Social Democratic Party are seen in Vienna, Austria October 8, 2017. /Reuters Photo

The OeVP has been firmly in the lead for months, with the latest polls putting it at 33-34 percent of votes. After that, the FPOe, with 25-27 percent, and the SPOe with 22-27 percent, are almost neck-and-neck. The question on Sunday will be which of those two finishes in second place.

A smattering of other parties, including the environmental Greens and liberal NEOS, are also likely to secure the minimum four percent of votes to make it into the 183-seat parliament. Any party with less will not make the cut.

Election day

Some 6.4 million people, aged 16 and above, are eligible to vote on Sunday.

Polling stations will open as early as 6:00 a.m. (12:00 p.m. BJT) and close by 5:00 p.m., with exit polls expected shortly thereafter. Preliminary results could be announced the same evening (early morning BJT on October 16).

Chancellor and Social Democrats leader Christian Kern poses with a student after a TV debate in Vienna, Austria, October 11, 2017. /Reuters Photo

But once the election is over, the parties will still have the tough task of building a coalition government, as no party is likely to win enough votes to rule alone.

Black & blue

Experts are predicting a conservative-far-right coalition – commonly known as “black-blue” in reference to the parties’ colors. This would be a repeat of the 2000 scenario when Austria came under EU sanctions for bringing the FPOe into the government. Such a boycott is not likely to happen again however.

Freedom Party leader Heinz-Christian Strache (L) and People's Party leader Sebastian Kurz (R) prepare for a TV debate in Vienna, Austria, October 10 2017. /Reuters Photo

So far, none of the main party leaders have ruled out an alliance with any of the others, meaning that everything rests on the final results – whether the FPOe or SPOe comes second – and on coalition negotiations that could take weeks, if not months.

The FPOe has already said it wants the interior, and ideally the foreign minister posts, as a condition to joining a ruling coalition.

In any case, if the OeVP wins, Austria could soon have Europe’s youngest leader at its head.

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