After an Israeli warplane was shot down last Saturday, Israel has launched several air strikes against Syrian and Iran-backed military targets inside Syria. Through these strikes, Israel has sounded several warnings about the perceived, increased Iranian involvement along its borders with Syria and Lebanon. Is a total war between Israel and Iran inevitable in the recent future? 

Several days after Israel’s direct confrontation with Iran on its northern border, concern remains over the growing danger posed by the Iran’s growing foothold in Israel’s neighborhood. Israeli officials have repeatedly voiced concerns over the smuggling of sophisticated weaponry to Hezbollah and the growing Iranian presence on its borders with Syria, stressing that both are redlines for the Jewish state. Although the conflict escalation seems possible in Syria, the war between Israel and Iran might not break out in Syria. Both Israel and Iran lack the willingness to join a total war against each other in the recent future. 

From Israel's side, launching massive military attacks against Iranian militant groups inside Syria is a tough decision to make for any Israeli political leader. On the one hand, Israel’s military strikes aim to deter Iran’s ambition of building indigenous undergroup weaponry factories inside both Lebanon, especially in the Southern Lebanon controlled by Hezbollah, and near Golan Heights controlled by Syrian government forces and other Shia militant groups supported by Iran.

In these weaponry factories, Israel believes, missiles and rockets could be produced and handed from Iranian military forces such as Iran Islamic Revolutionary Guards to Hezbollah and other Shia militant groups supported by Iran. The enforced Shia militant groups might threaten Israel’s national security in its northern border. Therefore, what Israel needs is to destroy these possible factories and deter any weaponry technique transferring from Iran to Hezbollah and other Shia groups inside Syria, not to launch total war into Syria. 

On the other hand, invading Lebanon and Syria is a sensitive topic inside Israel political arena. Many Israeli politicians were ousted from their offices because of their poor performances in wars with their northern neighbors in the history. Israeli right-wing politician, Ariel Sharon, who was Defense Minister in 1982 when Israel invaded Lebanon and became the Prime Minister of Israel in 2000s, lost his office when Israel-backed militants slaughtered Palestinian civilians in Beirut in 1982. Ehud Olmert, who was the Prime Minister of Israel in 2006 when Israel invaded Southern Lebanon to clear the presence of Hezbollah, was strongly criticized by Israeli public because of both the poor preparation of Israeli military forces and large number of civilian casualties. For the current government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to launch war against Iran in Syria and Lebanon will not be an easy decision to make. 

Iran also does not want to see war escalation with Israel inside Syria. On the one hand, the strategic priority for Iran inside Syria is to safeguard its vested interests and gains on the battlefield in Syria civil war, and to help Syrian government expand controlling areas inside Syria. On the other hand, Iran may face strong opposition from Russia if Shia militant groups launch massive military attacks against Israel, because a new frontline in Syria might disturb the Syrian peace process organized by Russia. Meanwhile, Iran’s relation with Europe might face challenges once a new war occur in Syria between Iran and Israel, and the rising economic cooperation between Iran and Europe might be suspended by the war. 

Although the conflict in Golan Heights between Israel and Iran might lead to a large-scale and devastating war, the chance for full-blown war on between Israel and Iran in Syria is still small and limited. 

(Wang Jin is PhD Candidate of School of Political Science in University Haifa and Research Fellow at Syria Research Center in Northwest University. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.)