China Economy: IMF: Fiscal stimulus needed if trade tension escalates
Updated 09:22, 06-Jun-2019
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02:20
The direct impact of further escalation in China-U.S. trade tensions remains highly uncertain. That's the latest comment from an IMF briefing here in Beijing. The Fund is predicting China's economic growth to hover around 6.2% in 2019, a tad lower versus its previous estimate. It's suggesting more fiscal stimulus to support the Chinese economy. CGTN's Cui Hui'ao explains.
After a slowdown in 2018, Chinese economic growth stabilized in early 2019. However, with the ongoing trade tensions between China and the U.S., IMF officials say uncertainty remains given the potential for further escalation.
KENNETH KANG, DEPUTY DIRECTOR ASIA AND PACIFIC DEPT., INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND ENG-MALE "If tariffs remain at the current level, the plans of stimulus so far is sufficient to stabilize growth at 6.2%. If the U.S. were to impose additional tariffs, it's true that growth can be significantly affected, and in this situation, some temporary stimulus could be appropriate."
For example, Kang suggests China could pursue a fiscal expansion, which could be centrally financed and targeted to low-income households, rather than expanding infrastructure through local governments. With regard to monetary adjustment, the IMF says there is a role for the adjustment if the inflation outlook weakens, and a more flexible and market-determined exchange rate will benefit China, as it can serve as a shock absorber. Meanwhile, regardless of the trade war, Kang says it is in China's long-term interest to push for structural reforms and enhance competition.
KENNETH KANG, DEPUTY DIRECTOR ASIA AND PACIFIC DEPT., INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND ENG-MALE "One is to continue the de-risking, and de-leveraging to address financial vulnerability. Second is to look for ways to boost consumption while slowing the pace of investment. Third is to increase the role of the private sector, to a further opening up of trade and investment."
CUI HUI'AO BEIJING "Nine out of the ten questions asked by journalists today were centered on the trade-war. As China's economic growth comes under pressure, the IMF's recommendation is that temporary stimulus should be warranted if the tension further escalates. Meanwhile, continued opening-up and strengthening the role of the private sector will benefit China's economy in the long-run. Cui Huiao, CGTN, Beijing."