COP23: China likely to play a major role

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At the 23rd United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 23) starting on Monday in Bonn, delegates from 197 countries will negotiate to prepare a rule book for implementation of the Paris Agreement, the landmark pact to keep the global temperature rise to no more than two degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Negotiations at COP 23 are likely to be fierce. Though rules bind the US to remain in the climate agreement until 2020, Donald Trump’s decision to pull out after that point may already result in a more significant role for China in the bargaining.

"With the USA likely to pull out of the climate change talks, China has a more prominent leadership role in reinforcing climate commitments," Lin Ji, executive secretary of the Beijing-based Global Environmental Institute, told CGTN.

Furthermore, China’s ambitious climate change goals and its startling progress towards meeting them is likely to put pressure on developed countries to act on their climate pledges.

China fixed four targets for 2020 – cutting carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 40 to 45 percent from the 2005 level, having non-fossil fuels account for 15 percent of consumption in the primary sector, and increasing forest coverage by 40 million hectares and forest stock volume by 1.3 billion cubic meters compared with 2005.

According to government figures, China is already 97 percent of the way towards the carbon intensity target, and 60 percent of the way towards its target for non-fossil fuels consumption and forest coverage. It has also increased its forest stock volume by 2.68 billion cubic meters in the last decade.

US President Donald Trump pauses as he announces his decision that the United States will withdraw from the landmark Paris Climate Agreement, in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington. /Reuters Photo

With the 2020 targets nearly met, the country has raced ahead to set even loftier goals for 2030 in the same four areas.

Green energy

According to the 13th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development released in January 2017, China also intends to increase production of wind energy from 129 gigawatts (GW) to 200 gigawatts (GW) by 2020.

And plans are in place to increase solar power production from 43 GW to 100 GW by 2020. Massive renewable energy capacity has made China the world leader in solar and wind energy production.

Staff assemble a grid of floats for the world’s largest floating solar project in Huainan, Anhui Province. /AP Photo‍

Last year, China’s investment in renewable resources was nearly double America’s 44.1 billion US dollars. China has announced that it will invest 360 billion US dollars in renewable energy by 2020.

Li Shuo, senior climate, and energy policy officer at Greenpeace China, said China is also setting an example by planning to have more electric vehicles both for public transport and private ownership. "From trains to cars, China’s transportation system is likely to embrace green initiatives in the coming years. It has already created upheaval to make the automobile sector go green," he told CGTN.

Beyond South-South cooperation

China has already established a fund of 3.1 billion US dollars to support climate cooperation among developing nations – so-called “South-South Climate cooperation”. The money will support mitigation and adaptation initiatives.

In the 2009 Copenhagen climate talks, developed nations committed to giving 100 billion US dollars to developing countries after 2020, but this along with similarly promised transfers of technology to combat climate change remains a contentious issue. No timeline has been set and there is little clarity on how the funds would be allocated to the countries.

The incentives have been promised by developed countries to assist developing nations reduce their reliance on fossil fuel. These developing nations have pinned their hopes on India and China's leadership to finalize the commitment made by wealthy nations.

Pacific Island civil society organizations respond to Trump pulling out of the Paris Agreement. /350pacific.org Photo

Experts believe that such obligations by rich countries can only be negotiated with mediation by rising powers. "China should strengthen South-South cooperation and at the same time forge a new alliance with the European Union and Canada for climate change negotiations," Lin Ji added.

Pacific islands and other small groups of islands facing the impact of climate change have formed a group called Small Island Developing States (SIDS). They are also looking up to China and Fiji for climate justice.

SIDS has borne the brunt of climate-related disasters in the last few decades. This year, more than a dozen hurricanes have pounded this group of islands including Puerto Rico, Barbuda, Saint Martin, Anguilla, Dominica, and the British and US Virgin Islands.

Significantly, Fiji holds the presidency of this year’s COP. Fiji is likely to seek China's support to bolster the cause of small islands impacted by climate change.

During the closing event of pre-climate talks for the Bonn summit on October 18, the Fijian Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama said, “We must make a genuine connection between what has happened in this room and the lives of the people we represent.”

He and all other responsible stakeholders want the decisions taken in these meetings, so important to the fate of the planet, to be implemented.